We all know that POL is worth more than the current price, and most notably, so do most MM's. Since most of us are long term investors we should not worry about the small 3% increase in price today. It is far better for the stock to gradually ascend then to see a 10 - 15% gain in one day.
Since it is an efficient market, stocks will always be rewarded in the end, i.e., "earnings always win!"
If you want to participate in the growth of POL then don't sell when it comes under pressure. I saw the same thing happen to PWEI (PVC pipe maker). The stock went to $24, lost $3-$4 in three days, then shot up to $31 in about a week.
Before POL reaches a new trading range (my guess is $13 -$14) you will probably see it drop back to high $8's. This will be the last shake-out before it hits new highs.
Wilson's earnings report clearly was designed to crow about the increased earnings YTD vs LYTD. Buried in the cackle was the fact that 25% of the positive cash flow during the first quarter came from the proceeds of divesting the Engineered Film Business Unit.
Another 20% ($14 MM) came from "lower personnel costs."
This isn't better cash flow from growth, it is from pruning.
He remaks that 2006 earnings will be "SUBSTANTIALLY above 2005." Well, what does "substantially" mean? For example, having your head above water is substantially better than having it below, but you're still treading water while the competition swims past.
The most honest remark was from the noob, babe, Newlin:
I'm curious how you could come up with $/sh POL before 12/31/2000? Geon? Sullivan? M.A. Hanna? etc.?
Anyway, your point is made. POL has shown no long term growth since its inception September 2000, which is particularly unexpected while there have been such strong performance in housing and auto segments, where POL claims to have most of their customers.
What about Steve Newlin? Well Samo, I appreciate you giving the Noob some credit. At least he didn't make an idiot of himself a la Steve Wilson whose stated goal is to "help competitors remain competitive." LMAO!
Newlin seems realistic, since he stated that it will "take some time to grow." This would be nice to hear if it didn't sound like "Fixing the Fix."
The rest of what he said was pretty much what I'd expect: Everything they teach you in MBA school: "POL has indepth knowledge of high value applications" (he doesn't know what they are yet). "Strategic targeting of Market Segments, Good management team, Investment in commercial resources" Yada, yada, yada.
Most appropriately he was able to repeat, parrot-like;
Well, dnadesi, you're quite financially profound, and I certainly give you credit for recycled platitudes.
But, you see, we've been watching POL more than just this past week, month, or year. Samo and I have watched it for 6 years now and I would have been THRILLED to see ANY gradual ascention over this entire time period!