There must be something going on that I'm entirely missing.
If we take management at their word we will see DCF of around $1-$1.20 this year. And they have projected high growth in 2012 also. Lets be optimistic and say its $1.40-$1.50..... and that they pay out $1.35 (or .3375 per quarter - three times the current distribution). That would get you a 5% yield (before paying taxes of course).
So if everything goes right over the next 24 months you end up with a 5% yield..... that seems like a very high valuation considering that we are currently at .11 distribution and need to triple that in less than 2 years.
I'll be thrilled to cash my .3375 distribution next year, but I also will be happy cashing my .20 or .25 distribution if thats what it turns out to be. I think those buying today are either anticipating a sale of the company or are going to be disappointed given the operational history of the company.
12 marcellus wells at average first year 2.5 million a day will likely double production in the short term. Have no idea if they have any more to drill. ATLS has lowballed the estimate of partnership income and might get an extra 20 million per 100 million in partnership sales. Real kicker IMO is what is happening in the mid-continent. Whatever the expansion plans are should be significant and money from APL will increase a lot next year. Sandridge is planning 136 wells this year with the real ramp being in the second 1/2 and with doubling the rig count next year APL might have as many as 200 wells per year added from SD. Wells are so far 240 barrles a day first 30 day average and 1/2 of that is gas and NGL's. I think SD's wells are worth 10 to 15 wells from Pioneer as far as volumes and revenue. Should be a very good next 3 years for both companies. Jim
It should be noted that the 12 Marcellus wells are part of the investment program and not 100 % Atlas Energy owned wells. That would place the ownership at 20 %. Assuming 2,500 MCF per well on average this would net out to 6,000 MCF/ day to Atlas. It would be nice to see gas production creep up to 60,000 MCF/day and the WV Marcellus wells will help as well. I have requested a prospectus from Atlas to estimate potential returns from the various gas plays. It seems like they could drill a lot of wells with $200 to $ 300 million in syndication money. Just trying to estimate the impact on DCF.
Barclays Maintains an 'Overweight' on Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL); Adjusting Estimates and Price Target 2:45 pm ET 04/29/2011 - StreetInsider Barclays maintains an 'Overweight' on Atlas Pipeline Partners, L.P. (NYSE: APL), PT increased from $31 to $40. Barclays analyst says, "Raising estimates driven by our revised commodity price deck and growth spending assumptions: We believe APL's upcoming press release on organic project update (to be released prior to May 3rd, earnings release) will indicate growth in expansion capex driven by project announcements at its G&P systems which are running full, as well as potential projects on the new WTLPG pipeline. We are raising our growth spending assumptions ahead of the announcement. We are now assuming $350 mm per year ($200 mm organic projects and $150 mm on acquisitions) spending compared to $230 mm we had previously. Other key assumptions to our estimates include average crude price of $102/bbl in 2011 and $105-$110/bbl in 2012-2015 and gas price of $4.05/mmbtu in 2011 and $4.50-$5.25/mmbtu in 2012-2015." (FY11 EPS estimates increased from $0.75 to $0.85) For more ratings news on Atlas Pipeline Partners, L.P. click here and for the rating history of Atlas Pipeline Partners, L.P. click here. Shares of Atlas Pipeline Partners, L.P. closed at $37.13 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $8.35-$37.38.