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Atlas Energy Group, LLC Message Board

  • bigearljr54 bigearljr54 Dec 5, 2011 9:24 PM Flag

    new presentation available

    Jefferies Global Energy Conference presentation from Dec. 1 available now on company web page.

    Quick read yields a nice nugget: 60 per cent increase in production 2012 over 2011, based on hedge book.


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    • Just listened to the presentation of Matt Jones at the Wells Fargo conference. Worth a listen; the guy is a class act.

      Take away: look for an announcement in the next 6 months about the Utica. This may also include mid-stream asset development. This brief discussion occurs in the Q&A. Chevron is mentioned as a possible joint venture partner.

      Also worth a listen to appreciate the EXPONENTIAL impact to ATLS of underlying positive developments at both APL and Atlas Resources.


      • 2 Replies to bigearljr54
      • Big Earl Jr, I listened to the webcast this evening. Matt Jones pointed to $180 MM of DCF for ATLS over next couple years. This equates to $3.5 per unit. At 5% yield we are looking at a $70 unit price. This is based on what we know today. I could see further management steps to further improve the story and DCF progression. Market could discount and keep the units trading closer to 4% which get you over $80 per unit. The leverage is in ATLS - i would swap out of APL into ATLS. As IDR's move to 50% rate, the returns on capital favor the GP. Assuming E&P MLP trades to a 6% yield although the syndication model implies a higher multiple. Not sure how to play the E&P MLP although I am about to own a lot. Embarrassed to admit to how many units I own...........This is all good and enjoy!

      • Agree, great presentation for both ATLS and APL. Listen to both gives you an idea of the growth going forward. The drilling partnership has very ambitiious plans. APL has more expansion beyond the 100 percent increase already occurring. These companies are really in a sweet spot. The only question mark for me is how long will natural gas prices be this low. It will be a real kicker if prices climb significantly. Chesapeake has publicly announced a slowdown in natural gas drilling and think they are big enough to push the market up.

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