Big Earl Jr, I listened to the webcast this evening. Matt Jones pointed to $180 MM of DCF for ATLS over next couple years. This equates to $3.5 per unit. At 5% yield we are looking at a $70 unit price. This is based on what we know today. I could see further management steps to further improve the story and DCF progression. Market could discount and keep the units trading closer to 4% which get you over $80 per unit. The leverage is in ATLS - i would swap out of APL into ATLS. As IDR's move to 50% rate, the returns on capital favor the GP. Assuming E&P MLP trades to a 6% yield although the syndication model implies a higher multiple. Not sure how to play the E&P MLP although I am about to own a lot. Embarrassed to admit to how many units I own...........This is all good and enjoy!
I am swapping out of APL into ATLS in my IRA. No tax issues to worry about. I am thinking that the spinoff shares I am not interested in holding. I think they will amount to 2 or 3 dollars per share of ATLS so buying now gives my eventual basis in ATLS a little under $23. $70 price target in 3 years is right at what I think is possible.
Not sure if I will swap some of the shares in my taxable account or not. If I do it will be after the the first of the year.
I do have APL in my retirement account and have been looking for a good spot to switch out to ATLS or Atlas Resource or both.
My major position is in ATLS in a taxable account.
It is likely that I will double up on my Atlas Resource shares when the spin-off occurs as the acceleration in earnings will be breath-taking over the next year in this entity. This may translate into a relatively stronger performance in the new MLP.
ATLS has made my unforeseen "early retirement" quite tolerable. Wink. Wink. And the growth prospects warm my heart. Kids and Mrs. are loaded up too. Planning on enjoying the ride.