Morgan issued a research report on the ATLS complex. The report was lengthy and extensive. They raised their 12-month price target on ATLS from $34 to $50 per unit based on an annual distribution exit run rate of $2.39 and a 4.5% yield. Very bullish on ATLS, overweight on APL and neutral on ARP. The report was issued on April 10th. I was wondering why ATLS was marching higher in a lousy market as I was traveling.
Interestingly, the 12-month price target for ARP was set at $32, not bad from here. They are expecting NG price to normalize at around $4 in 2013.
ATLS IS GOING TO BE A MONSTER. This is like owning a sector oriented hedge fund with a 2% control and a 50% carried interest through the IDR. Management owns ATLS, they have done it before and they are money makers. You definitely want to own what the Cohen's own. I wouldn't be surprised if the units hit $75 - $100 late 2013. This is a win-win with this name. While gas prices are low, they can buy producing gas properties on the cheap. Then when gas prices normalize, they will benefit from cash flowing into the sector.
Thanx for the summary. They're presenting at a conference tomorrow, wonder if that'll juice the price.
"You.....want to own what the Cohen's own". Agree, that's why I bought ATLS (33k) instead of APL. Had the corp. for the last 3 years. Owned AHD, APL, ATN, ATLS (original). Wasn't easy following their byzantine structure.
As u know, they own about 800,000 ATLS shrs vs 50,000 or so of APL. As they say, "follow the money".
So I guess I was not dreaming after all. $75 - $100 unit price! Sweet. I can't help but thinking of the friend who had 72,000 units and sold below $4/ unit because "no one ever lost money taking a profit." Jeez. I try not to mention ATLS when he is around.
Still long and strong here and the kids and misses are loaded up too.
I work in the business so I can't forward MS research due to licensing and copyright issues. I am sure someone who is a brokerage client of MS might be able to post on this board. I downloaded my copy off of Bloomberg. It is the most extensive work I've seen on ATLS/APL/ARP. I imagine we will see more of these efforts from the Street. As you may know, ARP filed a $500 MM shelf for a chinese menu of securities to be offered. Obviously preparing to make more acquisitions. I understand the shelf is now effective. When shelf's get registered like this, typically the research engines on the Street heat up in an attempt to win the business. After this report, I bet Morgan Stanley is the leader in the club house with the Cohen's to be lead underwriter on this shelf.