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Atlas Energy, L.P Message Board

  • bosox_pats bosox_pats May 19, 2012 5:10 PM Flag

    2Q Distribution

    Any guesses on 2Q distribution? 1Q indicated that 2Q SG&A will be $1 MM less which is a $0.02 pick-up. My guess is we get some partial accretion from ARP acquisition that closed end of April. I think some incremental capacity came on at APL as well. My guess is $0.29 for 2Q and we really start to ramp in 3Q and into 2013. It would be great if ARP could get off one more $200 MM acquisition in 2012 before gas prices start to rise later this year.

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    • Personally its not the 2Q distribution I'm interested in. The 3Q and 4Q are the key ones. APL has to complete its expansion projects and get things running smoothly. If they do then we'll be at the 49% IDR's and ATLS will be distributing over .40 in 4Q.

      As for ARP, I hope they are taking advantage of the CHK situation. From what I'm told there are now a huge amount of assets (not just CHK assets) on the market. I hope they keep picking smaller transactions that are accretive to DCF immediately. There certainly is opportunity out there, especially if you believe NG can get back over $3 in 2013.

    • Bosox,

      I would be surprised if ARP only does $200MM more by the end of year in additional, accretive purchases. In reading through the CC it seems management is just dumbfounded by the prices proved reserves and production are selling for right now. It just seems smart and opportunistic to load up on these assets now while the gettin' is good. ARP is always looking to build up its drillable inventory and they are not wasting any time.

      As far as the distribution ramp up, I would expect 4th quarter around 40 cents including the ARP spin-off amount. A moderate step-up over 2nd and 3rd quarters. Your 2nd quarter estimate seems about right.

      Those 16 Marcellus wells, plus the 60 other wells drilled last quarter, are are going to throw off real money heading into the 3rd quarter.


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