No moss grows on Ed Cohen's tree. I suspect we are about to get news from ARP on the new financing vehicle which will unleash some value for the large land inventory the company now holds. Furthermore, I suspect another acquisition is coming as well. These steps will enhance the distributions at ARP, pushing ATLS IDRs fully in the money. My guess is we will hear more about bottlenecks being relieved in APL pipelines and enhanced NGL capacity at the expense of some gas production. As we enter the second quarter, my guess is these steps will result in the distribution guidance tightening from $1.70 - $2.00 to something like $1.85 - $2.00. If we get a really good deal at ARP or raise more on the syndication side, we could be looking for a bump upward of $2.00. Regardless, the annualized distribution rate will be north of $2.00 by year-end and that is all that matters as that is how the yield is quoted for those who do stock screens.
Enjoying the ride of course. Looking forward to some exciting news which the share price seems to be hinting at not so subtly. ATLS has always been the best way to play the Atlas story although it's nice to have a little of ARP and APL too. Very interested to understand the new fangled financing twist that management may be rolling out.
Having been a unit holder since late 2008 accumulating into 2009 it has been one helluva ride and we are not done yet. Thanking my lucky stars for the good fortune of stumbling onto Atlas (and yes I did have to ride out the share price collapse in March 2009) and wishing and hoping that management continues to plan and execute so brilliantly.
Good luck to all long-term holders and remember that a lot of folks are struggling in this economy.
Big Earl - I got involved with ATLS in early 2011 and accumulated my position at an average cost of just over $13. A friend of mine who manages a small hedge fund in NYC told me about ATLS (He also recommended FUN and VMED - all big winners!). I did my own research and I liked what I saw. I spoke to the Cohen's and sensed a money maker. Also, with the S&P trading at 14X I was attracted to GP MLP's that trade to a 4% yield or better as it means the cash flow is effectively trading at 25X. Growing cash flow with a 25X multiple equates to huge upside. By 2016, I could see ATLS annualizing $4 of distributions and trading towards $100. Onward and upward!!