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Atlas Energy Group, LLC Message Board

  • jberns2421 jberns2421 Oct 17, 2013 8:56 AM Flag

    Downgrades

    Look for some idiot analyst to downgrade after the obvious next 2 quarters have been spelled out, as Baird did with APL.

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    • Other than Baird, I think its more likely that they recommend buying on the weakness. Keep in mind, ATLS has not lowered their 3q and 4q distribution guidance. That's because the low end of the range for full year distributions is $1.70. To reach that, ATLS needs only average .475 in distributions for the next 2 quarters. That looks very doable based on the updated APL and ARP guidance. If you assume that ATLS continues to trade at a 3.5% yield, that would suggest a mid-$50s by Jan. '14. That's a nearly 16% increase from the current price.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 3 Replies to yieldhog99
      • No way its 3.5%. Given that both underlying entities have just lowered guidance - and both just did a large acquisition which may not be going well - I'd say 5.5 - 6% is the appropriate range - especially given our history.

        Personally, I'm not selling due to tax implications - I'll hold forever and take the distributions - but I'm not considering buying more at $45..... $40....... $35...... probably not even at $30 or $25.

        You simply cannot wildly overpromise and decide you can do anything/anywhere. Stick to the geographies you know with the types of energy you know. Slow and steady wins the race!

      • ATLS is the big loser in this, as their distributions are dependent on APL and ARP which both will not contribute the extra share of DCF. If both had been on track then ATLS would have been the big winner

      • ATLS can still make an announcement that they will be below guidance. This could trade at a 4% DCF as well. There is nothing written in stone about 3.5%.

 
ATLS
0.88-0.0100(-1.12%)May 4 3:58 PMEDT