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Atlas Energy, L.P Message Board

  • harehau harehau Oct 22, 2013 12:00 PM Flag

    '16 value

    Not too long ago, we were talking about a $5 dist payout in '16. I am in the camp that we will see long term interest rates at lower levels for a long time to come. And that ATLS will get back on track, the risk is the Cohens, seems they would have learned by now, but who knows. $5 in '16 at a 3% yield, not unreasonable for an expanding well managed GP MLP, $166 per unit. You could see why someone might step in with a 50% premium offer now. Not impossible. There aren't too many smaller GP opportunities out there.

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    • I like optimism, but I see no clear path to a $5 payout in 2016.

      Next year will be our first over $2 in distributions. Two years later we'll have 250% growth?

      I hope next year brings $2.50+ followed by something over $3 the following year and $3.50 the year after that. Anything else is gravy. SO MUCH has to happen between now and then that all the analysts numbers are just that - numbers.

      Lets see how the next few quarters go before assuming we'll see that kind of growth.

      • 1 Reply to davidbdc2001
      • davidbdc2001,

        I think the ARP debacle will hurt ATLS a lot more than people realize.

        ARP was supposed to be at $2.60, instead they are at $2.24. That's a huge miss. It also hurts the leverage significantly at ATLS. High splits at $2.40. A $2.60 distribution would have meant another$.27/unit of IDR take, on 67 million units, or $18 million to ATLS, plus the LP distributions.

        Instead, we are at $.56 with APPROXIMATE 1.0x coverage, which is Cohen speak, means 1.06x

        It is going to take several years for ARP to get out of this rut. I think they have to get a much better equity price before they can make accretive deals. Otherwise, they must grow organically, and we all know how long that will take.

 
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