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Capital Trust, Inc. Message Board

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  • bjspokanimal bjspokanimal Mar 21, 2011 4:18 PM Flag

    Hail Mary

    over the past few weeks in the $2.30 to $2.45 range and I made it a POINT to do it ahead of the debt issue being resolved.

    Is there risk to doing that? Yes, there is. The best investments in the markets ALWAYS entail risks and I'm happy to tell you that the more you avoid risk, the more mediocre your returns will be over time.

    With CT, I guaged the trends impacting the company, which are all positive in a somewhat agonizingly slow way when it comes to the trends in commercial RE, and I guaged the liklihood, or lack thereof, that CT would come to terms with the banks this month, then I bought the stock based on my "anticipations".

    The best gains in any stock are early in a turnaround, when investor fears, and hesitancy, are at their greatest. Once CT starts looking like a solid company with little risk, It'll be selling for 7-times what it sells for today and it's upside from there, while meaningful, will be a 2 or 3 bagger at best spread over a much, much longer time horizon.

    That said, given that there is risk in contrarian, turn-around plays such as CT, I always say you should diversify your holdings...

    ... although this is a far cry from "venture capital" investing, a good venture capitalist will put a million in each of 20 different companies knowing that 19 of them will fail and the 20th one will make him 50 million.

    Diversification is NEVER out of style.

    Hope this helps,