Wed, Aug 27, 2014, 5:57 AM EDT - U.S. Markets open in 3 hrs 33 mins

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

The Talbots Inc. Message Board

  • impoexpovp impoexpovp Jul 8, 2011 4:24 PM Flag

    CONFUSION

    CONFUSION : I just don't understand the thinking and not that I have anything against shorting stocks.I just don't get shorting this one . I understand how to play the options to protect your shares but I cant figure out why you would short a company that's on the table to be bought out as this one. When you have analysts and news sites saying this should be sold and giving buyout targets prices such as for this company why in the world bet against it to the tune of 30% (shorts). It just doesn't sound like a logical play even with options to back it up. I know buy on rumors sell on news but the news is going to be buyout so its a no win for shorts. I know what the shorts will say . We are betting on it not getting bought out and it BK'S but is that really logical. I think they will walk this up to 5 dollars and sell it for 6.50 to 7. Now to me that's more logical than not.. any thoughts shorts or longs.

    HAVE A NICE WEEKEND

    DAY TRADER....
    LONG 10K 3.02

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • << I'm not sure what everybody does here but I'm 38 and trade for a living. >>

      I'm a wee bit older and while I don't trade for a living, I do trade a lot.

      << I have never heard of talbots before it came across on my hit list as a insane drop. I'm here to make money and I would short if I thought it was the best way to make money. In this case I'm on a speculative buy for a buy out. I've been through 3 buy outs in my career and this has all the makings of one. I day traded this enough to go long 10k at 3.02 and I see nothing but green ahead for the short term. >>

      While I knew of Talbots beforehand, it was the same large drop in early June that caused them to show up on my hit list. My hedged long approach works best with stocks that have just undergone a beating - it somewhat sets a floor (though not always) and the option volatility usually increases after a precipitous drop. I have 25K shares at about the same price as you but they are hedged with calls and puts. I feel comfortable with this position since I make my full profit if TLB is above $2.50 in mid-Jan and my breakeven price is $2.08.

      I would love to see a buyout as this would essentially give me my full profit in a much shorter timeframe, significantly increasing my return. However, I have given up chasing buyouts. You've obviously had success with buyouts but I've always lost whenever I bought a stock that was recommended as a potential buyout.

      << If you are long I think it would take a good couple of qtrs to earn 7 to 8 dollars a share before the price is warranted for the stock. If your short good luck just don't see the downside at this point to make money here. >>

      Agree. We already have been warned that Q2 will be bad, so the company needs a good 2nd half to see the stock price recover.

      As to shorting, I don't see the rational here either. As previously mentioned, I think most of the shares short were initiated in the $5 - $6 range or even higher. I doubt many are shorting at the current price levels. Despite what some of the raving pumpers on this board think, I don't short anymore. I tried shorting earlier this year because of all the problems on Main Street but got my head handed to me because Wall Street was feasting on Bernanke's QE gifts and didn't care about Main Street's problems. I still believe that the disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street will eventually end badly, so that's why I now take a much more conservative approach of being long but hedging for safety.

      << To each is own I guess we all have the right for an opinion doubt very much if the few people here talking will change the outcome or change the 4 million traded everyday. >>

      These boards have no effect on the market. But you'll never convince the board police of that.

      << I will say this if you are long I hope they make some serious changes as I did my DD on this CEO and the performance doesn't look good as far. >>

      Not so sure that they should change CEO at this time. First of all, that would be a real shock to the market and I doubt they could attract a respected replacement at this time. Also, while doing my DD on TLB, I read several articles about Trudy Sullivan and she is well respected in the retail business and it was considered a coup for Talbots to get her as CEO. It appears she made a mistake in trying to expand the demographics of Tabots' customer base, but it seems to me that that was a logical step for a new CEO trying to expand the business. We'll have to see how well she recovers from this but she certainly has a good reputation for feeling the pulse of retail trends and this will be crucial for 2nd half performance.

      << Good luck long or short. >>

      Not sure this is possible unless you swing trade.

    • Blah Blah.... In the end.... 17.6% Loss. You are not an expert or CEO. You are a Loser.

      You are desperate because you are a hopeless shorty. I know you are mad and you want others to lose money. Or, do you think you can get your money back? Did you get a margin call? Is that why you are bashing? As usual, you are working VERY HARD but it will not go down. Go look at the chart dumbass.

    • << thank love, just like the last stock i bought ALU bashers were out in full force, it did go down the first week i bought it but boy did i make a killing on it, but you should have heard them bashers doggin it that week it was getting crushed. so i took all me winning and bought TLB and the first week i was getting crushed again but we know how that story is going to end dont we. see you at $7 >>

      Oh no - is lovegreen still around and jumping in on this thread? Bet she doesn't have anything positive to contribute to the discussion - just more ranting with lots of explicatives.

      Come to think of it, maybe you're lovegreen, responding to yourself - your language isn't as foul-mouthed but you seem to be just as paranoid about shorts and your grammar is just as bad. And you both love to brag - lovegreen about buying at the bottom and you about the "killing" you made on your last stock.

      Still waiting to hear your response as to how I was bashing Talbots. You must really think Trudy Sullivan is a basher, since she is the one who made the comments that I posted. Imagine, the CEO of a company bashing her own stock. Doesn't she own shares? I thought longs never bash their stock.

    • I'm not sure what everybody does here but I'm 38 and trade for a living. I have never heard of talbots before it came across on my hit list as a insane drop. I'm here to make money and I would short if I thought it was the best way to make money. In this case I'm on a speculative buy for a buy out. I've been through 3 buy outs in my career and this has all the makings of one. I day traded this enough to go long 10k at 3.02 and I see nothing but green ahead for the short term. If you are long I think it would take a good couple of qtrs to earn 7 to 8 dollars a share before the price is warranted for the stock. If your short good luck just don't see the downside at this point to make money here. To each is own I guess we all have the right for an opinion doubt very much if the few people here talking will change the outcome or change the 4 million traded everyday. I will say this if you are long I hope they make some serious changes as I did my DD on this CEO and the performance doesn't look good as far. Good luck long or short.

    • buckethead555@att.net buckethead555 Jul 9, 2011 5:47 PM Flag

      thank love, just like the last stock i bought ALU bashers were out in full force, it did go down the first week i bought it but boy did i make a killing on it, but you should have heard them bashers doggin it that week it was getting crushed. so i took all me winning and bought TLB and the first week i was getting crushed again but we know how that story is going to end dont we. see you at $7

    • It's Saturday and you are still bashing TLB. Did you lose more than $2,000 yesterday? I know you are up a little but don't be too happy about it. You are still losing .54 per share (17.6% loss) and it will go up on Monday. I guess you are dumber than I thought. Longs don't bash their stock.

      You shorties are amazing. Always working very hard including weekends. But, the truth is you are NERVOUS! That's why you are keep bashing. What about this? We do not care about your crap. You are not an expert. You are currently losing 17.6%.

      "Must admit you're half right about my being short"(Nice grammar! Mr. English Teacher) direct quote from Wussy Surfing down to the SOUTH06. He/She is a shorty! Net long my ass. Remember! Longs don't bash their stock.

    • buckethead555 is a cross dresser who is hurt that his favorit clothing store is going BK.

    • << CONFUSION : I just don't understand the thinking and not that I have anything against shorting stocks.I just don't get shorting this one . I understand how to play the options to protect your shares but I cant figure out why you would short a company that's on the table to be bought out as this one. When you have analysts and news sites saying this should be sold and giving buyout targets prices such as for this company why in the world bet against it to the tune of 30% (shorts). It just doesn't sound like a logical play even with options to back it up. I know buy on rumors sell on news but the news is going to be buyout so its a no win for shorts. I know what the shorts will say . We are betting on it not getting bought out and it BK'S but is that really logical. I think they will walk this up to 5 dollars and sell it for 6.50 to 7. Now to me that's more logical than not.. any thoughts shorts or longs. >>

      Up until mid-March, there were about 15M shares short on a consistent basis and these were all initiated at prices above $5. Then in the second half of March, the number of shares short jumped to 20M and has remained there since. Again, most of those shares were probably sold in the $6 range. The point is that most shorts likely are sitting on a profit and for whatever reason, they don't seem to feel pressured (yet) to cover.

      So I don't think we're looking at a situation where people have been shorting TLB at $2.50 - $3.50 per share in the face of a possible take-private buyout.

      And why aren't the shorts covering? Maybe they are, since the latest figures are for mid-June, prior to the recent run-up in the market and Talbots. And those that aren't covering probably fall into the category that you mentioned - they don't believe a buyout will happen and expect the stock price to go down further.

      We have to remember that despite the many macro concerns in the world and US markets, we are at a market high right now, and retail has led the way lately despite lousy job numbers, budget fights, etc. Some shorts may simply be betting on a general market pullback, expecting retail to be hit hard and the weakest players like Talbots to be hit the hardest.

      We also have to remember that the Q1 results were poor and the outlook for Q2 was described as "We expect second quarter sales and gross margin will be significantly below last year, resulting from high promotional and markdown activity as we work to clear slower moving goods and better position ourselves for fall".

      Talbots could go either way right now. If a buyout occurs, case closed. And if the markets stay strong, it will probably continue to move higher on buyout hopes. But if the markets pull back and the buyout rumors wear off, it's vulnerable to return to the $2.50 - $3.00 range again.

      That's why I established a hedged long position whereby I realize my full profit as long as TLB is above $2.50 in mid-Jan and I won't lose money unless it falls below $2.10. I give up the big bonanza of a buyout, but I prefer the safety of my approach

      Anyway, it's all guesses and opinions. I'm sure there are many major players that know a lot more than we do.

      • 1 Reply to wsurfer06
      • I agree for the most part. I do think its a smart move with the options most traders don't even bother with that. I do believe even with the ok qtr and the bad qtr coming up per management its a fair trade at 3.75 to 4. With june retail numbers overall looking stronger than expected I would think (hope) tbl saw some of that which should help the downside qtr. But I feel with lack of P.R. releases and word on the street this thing is sold.

    • buckethead555@att.net buckethead555 Jul 8, 2011 5:43 PM Flag

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=TLB+Competitors
      check out tlb competitors, IMO someone has beaten this down this far for a reason. i will bet that most of that short position is in the hands of a buyer. im just going to sit back and try not to screw this up by selling too early.

 

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.