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The Talbots Inc. Message Board

  • sebast_texas sebast_texas May 21, 2012 12:44 PM Flag

    This is the near outcome

    Cashinnnnn i hear a cash register soon. I think they'll settle at aroun 3.20 buyout offer in the upcoming days.
    Then I sell an enjoy a delicious margarita at the bar enjoying a Tex-mex fajita as well. We all say goodbye and congratulate each other for still believing in a buyout. Who will be the last one to turn off the light on this forum though?..... That's important as the buyout itself hehe :-)
    Cheers!

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    • fretfulporpentine@rocketmail.com fretfulporpentine May 22, 2012 9:55 PM Flag

      [[ Currently, there is a 27% profit potential to a deal being announced at the end of the day. This is rather odd for a merger arbitrage situation ]]

      The arbs can be very antsy even after a deal is announced. Just yesterday Motorola Mobility (MMI) finally got approval from the Chinese, before that there were quite a few pennies waiting to be picked up. And earlier this year Pharmasett (VRUS) had some wild price swings even after the deal was set in stone just because a drug unrelated to the deal had some bad results.

      Thanks for introducing some sanity into this message board.

    • okay..well i was just gonna buy more today for the quick 25% overnight but have cancelled my orders today at 2.35 and 2.33..because i'm scared bod will screw this up like everything else..and if they do we're gonna lose half from where we are now...anyway i bought sodastream instead under 32...

    • Yes, but logistically, it just takes a little bit of time. You can't do it within days, that is just not possible. The quickest way would be to tender for all outstanding shares, which would take 20 business days or around that, can't remember exact legal requirements.

    • i don't think so..not when you're buying it for cash for yourself..you don't leave the keys with the people that have run it into the ground once you agree to buy it and write a check

    • I think days is a little fast, but they will not have another earnings announcement.

    • If they cannot get an individual executive to agree, they may decide to keep that executive on board for the entire 12 months after the change of control and force that person to resign through gradual reduction in responsibilities or they can just pay up. This doesn't have anything to do with BOD.

    • i agree pikstox

    • you're crazy that only happens when there is a 6 mos delay to closing and when stock and cash is part of it..this gets announced for all cash it goes straight to that price and the deal will be done in weeks if not days..

    • I've been in on these things too - further out in the group working on the operations integration.

      I agree entirely with you on the state of the negotiations.

      In addition to financials, I am sure they are working out the exit strategy for current management and key operations people (buyers, sales management, real estate maintenance). You do not buy a company and simply announce "class dismissed"! As much as this chat board has amused itself berating Trudy Sullivan and the management team, Sycamore needs transition time to get their picks and people in place. TLB has a lot of people doing real everyday work - and some of them may be great people SYC wants to ID and retain. Syc will want to phase out the old team(s), close stores, upgrade others, through an organized and planned process. This is where the feedback to severance comes back into play and why takes so long to finish the last print of the deal - not just for top management. If all the rowers jump ship, a captain is dead in the water.

      The stock offer is surely set. The operations, consolidation, transfer of control and management planis what they are working on. Tlb management must get a deal. They already know they do not have skills to bring change. SYC needs to finish hammering out a great change in control -for their investor's confidence. they also know the past 4 years was horrible for retail - particularly apparel - and particularly for the Tlb customer who is older and can/will forgo buying things for themselves - while still funding daughter and grand daughter purchases at Bebe, Pink etc.

      On the arbitrage, I have often noted that a 20% gap can remain right up to a closing announcement of a deal, and up to 7% even up to the last day of stock record for the payout.
      The gap most likely indicates no further upside to the price announced and the time the deal will take to finalize - i.e. "dead money" for longs with top set, while shorts can still play on a bet that all falls apart - and get better than 20%. if this takes 6 months to exeute the payout - money is locked up and away from other opportunity.

      Good Luck.

    • Sycamore cannot buy any more public stock, or they would have already. They are at 9.99%. I believe that there is some rule....somewhere.. that says you can't buy more than 9.999% of a company from the public.

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