Since you asked, here's what I see in the chart: NEUTRAL
I'm not worried about really bearish reactions as I once was - right after the reverse split, for instance. The quarterly earnings reports have, I think, dispelled most of the feelings of doom and gloom.
On the other hand, what happened today? Dow up 200, NASD up 50 (which as a percentage is better than Dow's 200), JCOM down 40 cents (-8.7%). Volume today is a paltry 20,000 shares, less than half of what's typical.
My feeling is that investors are increasingly feeling that we've seen a bottom to the bear market. They are now more favorably inclined to buy tech stocks or consumer stocks. These are not seen so negatively as 'overvalued'. If they're not "cheap", at least they're 'fairly priced'. The fallen leaders are again being viewed with at least modest excitement as potential future market leaders.
And where does this leave JCOM? As 'just another small-cap stock'. It's hard to build momentum when the large-cap high techs steal your thunder.
No, I don't worry about a price collapse for JCOM any more. Yes, JCOM did break through the $4.35 resistance. But it has pulled back from the next surge, creating new resistance around $4.60. Sooner or later it will break through this one too.
So, then, why am I only NEUTRAL? Lack of volume primarily. No enthusiasm. Growth in bits and spurts without a focussed uptrend.
Why put your money in JCOM when you can buy an exciting stock that everyone knows that will grow faster - MSFT? How about a really depressed airline that everyone is sure will make it - DAL? Why not even a cheap computer stock that has gained 48% since October 30 and everyone has heard of the company - GTW?
Stocks compete for investor (and mutual fund) money by their price performance, by the perception of their company image, and by what executives and analysts do to proclaim the attractiveness of their company. In all of these, JCOM is poorly competitive (at best).
How visible to the investing public are j2's marketing efforts? How satisfied are you, as a shareholder, with the way j2 communicates to you?
j2 is not a bad company. j2's stock price will rise over the next year. But if you have cash on the sidelines, is JCOM stock realisticly where you want to put your money for best growth opportunity over the next year?
That's why I call JCOM stock a 'NEUTRAL'.
As for the odds of being able to buy 100,000 shares at $3.50 ... small. For only 8 days in all of 2001 has JCOM volume exceeded 100,000. You want to greatly increase the demand while simultaneously dropping the price. Markets shouldn't work that way. If your order gets executed, it probably means that there's a greater force pushing in the opposite directions which is convincing shareholders that they don't want to own this company. Why do you want to be buying it then? You'd get it even cheaper by waiting.
If you don't have the skills of a good day trader, don't try to fight the direction of the market. That ends up as 'ulcer city'.
<i>By definition, if you don't update your software or add new features, aren't your products obsolete?</i>
Whose definition is that? Netscape tried to accelerate the software development cycle and look where it got them. Besides, J2 isn't a software company. They're a service company.
By definition, if you don't update your software or add new features, aren't your products obsolete? As far as I know, there have been no updates or new features in at least a year. That is a long time in the software world.
From aviv: "nothing else to say
just look at the price chart"
When you look at the price chart, do you see
--- a failure to break resistance? (Maybe tomorrow will fix this.)
--- a candlestick with a long upper shadow, similar to the shadow on candles of 7/23 and 7/24? JCOM fell some 40% in the weeks after that high. 'Shooting Star' candlesticks tend to mark the end of rallies. (Reference: Nison, "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques")
--- a Relative Strength Index that has topped 70, the boundary defining an 'overbought' condition?
--- a price that lies above the 2SD Bollinger Upper Band, indicating an overpriced stock subject to a correction?
Had JCOM taken its gain more slowly, the chart would be in excellent condition. But this rise is too rapid. Expect to see profit-taking.
'Nothing else to say'?? Oh, but I think there is!
Very informative post on resistance. I'd like to see a little PR about now to move this closer to 5, but I think you're right about profit taking...it won't be me though. I'm still a loser @ $5.75/share and holding.
Re: linda's post...I only replied because I also thought it was an unusual place for it. To add my 2 cents...I think Bush and his team are probably doing a good job, but quite honestly, every time I hear him say "uh," it sounds like "duh" to me.