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Harvest Natural Resources Inc. Message Board

  • carlkeough carlkeough Dec 16, 2013 10:51 AM Flag

    What is HNR worth.

    Out of debt, 50M cash, 200M on the way plus (book value of other holdings)? Big question mark on other holdings info please.

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    • Here is my bad math on value. I am assuming there are now 45 million shares outstanding.
      1) $125 million sales proceeds less $79 million of debt is $76 million or $1.70 a share.
      2) when 2nd step of Petrodelta sale is done that is $208 million after taxes or $4.60 a share
      3) They had a deal for $3 a share that did not happen, If you go to company presentations they think Gabon is worth $5-$9 per share. But since they had an offer for $3 per share, we have to go with the lowball on this.
      4) ??? for balance of stuff in Columbia, Indonesia and China.

      When I add up $1.70 plus $4.60 plus $3 I get an approximate value of $9.30 per share.

    • I have them with less cash. I assume that it was Harvest who pulled the Vitol deal because it was ridiculously low. It gave Harvest credit for 20M barrels when the most conservative estimates are 50M and the top end is in the mid 100s. Harvest wasn't in a position to be rejecting offers at that time, now they are and so they did imo. That's a big if though and only those involved know for sure. So IF $3/share is a fire sale offer based on 20M barrels and there are at minimum 50M, an offer of $5/share wouldn't be out of the question. They also completed the 3D when that must have been their last dollars so that could be a big add depending on what they see. Lariang has a now proven hydro system and is "worth" $100Ms but they'd take what they spent if they could get it. $1/share? They were in default on the Columbia deal. Don't know if they cured but unless they drill a well they won't get what they paid probably. I guess we get a clue based on whether they did cure the default. If so they must have value there but it would be pennies/share.

    • carl...please look at Yahoo "Key Statistics" for HNR. It is a good guide.

 
HNR
1.59-0.06(-3.64%)Jul 2 4:01 PMEDT