to say that: "one does not short a CEF when it is reasonably valued, but when a fund goes up with no reason to such huge premium, the hedged trade is like taking candy from a baby - and so far it has done exactly that!"
Again, hmmm lets see now, phk keeps going up and you keep saying, to the effect, that you are profiting from it because you are short phk....or something like that.........lmao.
Well, its now easy to come to the conclusion that you are a bonefide nutcase (one step forward and two back).....too funny.
In summery from your nosense rants, your basically saying that, yeah, Im losing my butt on my short phk position, but, but, but..... my other investments are making up for losing phk position...........lol.
Soooo, you're what they call..........................a, a, uh, I just don't want to be rude here, but you are an idiot investor. Hey, don't get me wrong here, but you've basically said as much about yourself.
Lmao at you again. You've got novice written all over you and you account, whats left of it, $100?..........lol
Granted there are hefty spreads in the market..are they to the tune of 70%?
Also, those spreads apply to all funds, why would PHK be any different?
Why would you assume PHK holds better paper than any other fund? It's track record does not support it is better managed...
I disagree with you, when you state that the HY market for individual bonds is highly liquid. There are trades, but the spreads between what the dealers are paying, and what individuals are paying are ridiculous. Last week dealers were paying .31 for AIG 5.6 coupon 2016 and selling them for .37. For the 5.85 2018 they were paying .34 and selling at .37, Look at GMAC, The May 2013 bonds dealers were paying .31 and selling for .48. That was after the bankruptcy news was out. Today look at Citigroup notes, the May 2014 5.13 dealers sold them at .83 and were buying the Sept 2014 5.0 at .68, there are plenty of examples.
That's not a liquid market. That's also why the NAV doesn't mean that much, there is a lot of noise in it day to day. In addition, to imply that all HY bond funds hold the same paper, is like saying that all Large Cap Equity Growth funds hold the same positions.
I believe in all these mantras too - to a certain degree.
A.The dividends do not cost me anything (perhaps 2% a year to be exact)..
B. This is NOT a well managed fund, au contraire, this is a POORLY managed fund.
Again, just check my facts vs. reality.
What has been PHK's track record vs peers over its existence..it has been managed by the same manager for years with poor results on a risk adjust AND total return vs. its peers.
Why would you believe that the current environment merits a 70% premium given its poor track record over years..and BTW, we have seen its track record in a similar environmet over the last cycle of the early 2000's..NOT impressive at all vs. its peers.
Herein lies my point, indeed the tren is your friend, but the trend I am looking at is 100% fail proff over time - in ANY instance of significant premiums in CEFs mkt. price over their NAV'S - those funds have lagged miserably..
can one ride an anomaly, an abberation, for a while and get nice profits? YES!
I am not that smart for this game of hot potato..I knew not to get involved in internet stocks in late 1999 and early 2000..I missed some potential profits but who says I would have sold on time..so I did not own YHOO at 100 and rode it to 250..but I also did not own it all the way down to 8 (and did not average down at 100, like some people I knew did, because the stock seemed "Cheap" after having declined by 60% from the top) - a bubble is a bubble and PHK owners are long a bubbly asset right now.
If they are smart enough to get out in time- god bless them..but owning it here..they will lag for years to come!
Yes I certainly understand your position. Look at the turnover rate. Look at the expense ratio. PHK is actively managed. By arguably the best bond managers in the world. Perhaps you would be better served using a S&P short such as SDS to hedge your long junk positions. At least you’d be off the hook for the dividends. I’ve been doing this crap for almost forty years now and have found out. The trend is your friend. Don’t fight the Fed. And at the end of the day the market is always right. Good luck to you ny_er_1. I admire your dedication in what you believe!
Frankly, I don't see what everyone DOESN'T SEE about ny_er_1's long/short trade: it makes a lot of sense. Might not work, because sometimes the obvious trades don't work like expected, but in theory it is a no brainer. My concern would be how reliable the NAV's of these funds are, since it is hard to put a value on on the securities they carry. Maybe that huge PHK premium isn't so huge depending on how you value their portfolio. And determining value for stressed securities is way out of my league (as apparently it has been for most all of Wallstreet).
The valuation of assets is quite frankly a moot issue since all funds evaluate their assets using third party services and basically are subject to same valuations parameters.
So an AIG bond held by PHK would be essentially priced the same at EAD and any other fund which holds it etc.
My mind's made up, don't confuse me with fax
Short Interest (Shares Short) 5,229,300
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 8.8
Short Percent of Float %
Short Interest - Prior 5,047,400
Short % Increase / Decrease 3.60 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™
And again just because you are so slow and limited see my posy on 4/24/09 at 7:43 pm about my short opened last week - you must be very proud of PHK's performance this week , I bet - look what my long on EAD has done and maybe (if you really try hard) you will begin to understand that at current valuation PHK will under perform it peers miserably..I posted my short from yesterday, let us meet again in 3-6 months (maybe sooner) and I will show you the same picture again..
Thanks for not selling PHK and enabling me to continue doing this.
i keep going back and forth between ead & phk and cannot see how you are doing so great with ead. compared to phk it,s a pos. explain the differance in these etf,s on this board so we can make up our minds. you are to vague.top cluttering up this board are explain yourself.
I see a difference of .15 cents profit in closing price of EAD over PHK between the 24th of Apr and the 1st of May. Not exactly a killing was made there. It seems to me that it would make more sense to wait for a chart reversal in PHK to begin shorting rather than losing money in one investment, off-setting that with a gain in the other. That's like placing equal bets on Red AND Black. Just hope the ball doesn't land on "00".
You are bit slow but at least you got something right:
Yes, PHK can go up but as long as my longs that hedge it go up even higher I make money - which has been the case so far, and I expect it to be going forward . But you don't seem to have the mental capacity to understand that, so stay with PHK and push it even higher so I can short more of it at ridiculous premiums and buy more of its peers at discounts - as I said, like taking candy from a baby..so easy with timid investors like yourself.