Digesting all of the data that has been recently posted, the only ones that I find reassuring are the 25K and 10K CEO and CFO share acquisitions on December 3 when the SP was still hovering around 20. The part that is reassuring is that they would have had to a reasonable sense of how the quarter and year would shake out when they made the purchases which, at face value, would tend to run counter to suspicions about results disappointments. What is not reassuring is that while the CEO and CFO have intimate visibility of the business, the attitudes of the larger investment world is just too big for them to predict so they are getting blown around just like us. With the market booming, there are plenty of places to invest that have reasonable returns at lower perceived risk than Procera. I sure hope that the Dec 3 insider purchase of 35K shares is a real sign that we are not about to get hit with big downside surprises.
I think, The key to this discussion is the fact that 6 weeks into Q4, PKT CEO raised the 2012 guidance from 30% to 40% increase over 2011 Revenue. Which translates into $4 - $5 million additional revenue. That raised the revenue target from $58 Million to $62-$63 million +
Without confident visibility of this Q4, why would anyone do that? Anyone? Peter? Search? Hirstue? or even Mr Mining?
We are hearing this from pretty smart management. Right? I think the key question is visibility into 2013? Do they have sufficient visibility to provide 30% increase in revenue to cross $80 miilion in 2013?
They show up as "Acquisition (Non Open Market)" on my radar screen which I believe would mean that they were actually purchased, the distinction being they directly from the company and not through the open market. Please let me know if there is another source that points to them as awards instead.
Side note - I am getting burned out on trying to figure this thing out ... it's all speculation at this point and I am alongside you in hoping for the best!