My best Assessment of what we are living through now
The only logical explanation is occassionally one or several portfolio managers leave a fund.When this happens it is not unusual that the position held by that PM or PM's get sold in a manner very similiar to what we are experiencing now.Not that this makes anyone feel better but it is very difficult to rationalize based on current execution / growth potential & valuation why anyone would want to exit this stock at current levels. There has been some negative noise / guilt by association , " UN /DPI , ALLOT " those two just mentioned issues have clearly created some head winds and turned Procera Networks from a feel good to a show me / tenuous currency. If i was running the show or had significant influence w/in this Organization i would Pre-release Q4/2012 earning and announce a 5% stock buyback. I would not be a aggressive buyer but the message Company would be sending to the street would speak volumes.
The other option is that the market really has slowed down...call it an ebb in the flow. Additionally put has 60 mil in annual revs..most markets at this stage have fits and starts. So trading at 8 times rev when it was at 24 is pretty dang hi..especially w margins in the 65% ish..be diff if they had 90% margins...so all said...valuation right now isn't outlandishly low. If mgmt sets 30% growth forecast for 2013 pkt will respond. So yes...show me stock...this is where money is made. But a buy back...at this stage is ridiculous...pkt is an acquisition target...not the next F5 or riverbed. Glta
Appreciate your insight , stock never traded at a higher multiple than the 4-6 range of top line your failure to back out 130 million of cash bringing 480 down to 350 / 60 clouds the facts . " The other option is that the market really has slowed down " for some Companies this is true Allot is a perfect example . During PKT's Nov Q&A on earning conference call one analyst was very impressed that Mobile Rev growth went from under 15% in Q1 to over 45% in Q3 and posed the question is this where future growth comes from? JB was very clear in his answer , we are experiencing growth in every facet of our business in every region of the World. Higher education just had best quarter over 50 wins , Gross Margins moved up from 61% to 72% Y/Y , Service & Support line increased 50% Y/Y up 500k sequentially from 2.5 million to 3 ,signed two largest deals in the industry and reflected on a prior CC and discussions about potential galactic wins well we won two of those , revenues will start getting generated from those relationships in 2013. " The other option is that the market really has slowed down..." kell5208 not trying to be cute or get personal but that statement considering the World we live in and the fact that Procera is very much a global play on Data does not make sense to me , give some thought to it. If anything their customers need for their services is becoming a priority to properly manage / maximize the utility of all Carriers lines , the fact that Procera is helping their customers generate incremental revenue makes this initiative take precedence on the Cap Ex things to do list. Another positive quality that Procera possesses that is not discussed much and should entitle this Company to get a healthier multiple is most small companies do not have a Global Paw Print this one does. The Buy Back and refernce i made to that. Company just made a 25-30 million dollar acquisition , half cash / half stock acquiring Company probably wanted some equity participation , management has a opportunity now do to buy back some if not all those shares they issued on the cheap. This Company is not burning cash , cash conponent now represents 40% of market cap and valuation is ridiculously low. There is also a emtional conponent to this buyback , Procera stock is broken there is a confidence crisis that needs to get addressed a move of this nature provides much needed liquidity and sends a loud and clear message to everyone business is good our stock is cheap. Kell5208 " ..valuation right now isn't outlandishly low " everything is relative for this Company the valuation is as low as it has ever been .