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Procera Networks, Inc. Message Board

  • searchnomoresd searchnomoresd Aug 9, 2013 12:16 PM Flag

    Here's my take

    I believe I know what's going on (just my opinion). People see the huge revenue increase needed in the 2nd half to get to 30%+ growth and just don't believe the company can get there especially with the low bookings number. They would need to have an incredible Q3 bookings number and absolutely amazing revenue numbers for Q4.

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    • PKT is selling at about 2.3 times revenue and less than 2 times the revenue projected by JB for this year. FIRE was selling at 8 times revenue and CSCO bought them for 10 times revenue as PKT did for VINELAND. What kind of poison pill saves PKT from a takeover ?

    • Current Management is being conservative on their guidance the #'s they have put out and expect to generate are in the bank not a reach. They would not of upped guidance after Q1 if that was not the case. Feb 2013 Q4 / 2012 Year End Earning Release is not that far removed. Even when they mention 25 million mega deal I can assure you they anticipate generating 30 -50 million over the time frame they mentioned. JB and Team are not full of Bravado they are telling it to you the way it is. Allot is our problem they are not executing and providing the shorts with renewed enthusiasm on their Bear Case Thesis.

    • Where does the $20M mega-carrier order fit in that scenario? That is more than a quarter's revenue in itself.

      • 2 Replies to derby942003
      • It was unclear to me if all of that would be recognized in 2013, maybe half of it? no doubt will help....

        I wonder myself if we should stop viewing 30% revenue growth as conservative....Raymond James thinks it is "aggressive".....of these 16 trials there is risk that we don't win our expected amount. There also seems to be a disconnect between analysts view of competitive pressure and Brear's view of it....at least two CC's they keep asking him if competition is increased as if they don't believe him when he says that it hasn't...

        I also keep thinking about Hirsuite's comments made on several occassions that turning trials into revenue is a slow and painstaking process....I think there is risk that we win several trials but the timeframe is pushed out and we can't recognize the revenue in time.....I refer you to Q42012 earnings debaucle if you think timing of revenue isn't a big deal.....

        also hanging your hat on stealing market share isn't really what i think people want to hear....it is exciting to hear where the industry is heading but for the next 6 months it appears there are several big fish stuck in a small pond fighting over 16 trials.....

      • that's $20mil over several years.

 
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