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DARA BioSciences, Inc Message Board

  • beniceor beniceor Feb 7, 2014 7:51 AM Flag

    Gentleman...Read This and then you decide..

    Guys, I have in this business for many years so here are the facts and the choices you have for the next few months until the next CC/earnings are released. If you are truly long term then the following does not apply to you but you may need a strong stomach for a short period of time. It is true that the majority of R/S's end up in disaster for good reason, the company is failing and it simply provides more time for that failure to complete itself. But here is the danger in this situation ..Assuming a 1/5 R/S of a company earning only a dime per share and selling at 50 cents what transpires-- the new stock now is offered at $2.50 but the earnings are now 25 cents per share since one must also multiply the r/s factor into the earnings as well...con'td

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    • Softly bashing are we?

      • 1 Reply to ddamagegivn
      • hi ddama..I really can't can't blame you for that remark as it might sound as if that was my intent but in this case the answer is no. I like this company, I owned the stock but felt recently that it was profit-taking time for the reasons I have enunciated several times. I felt and still do that a drop in the stock from the day I sold would take us down near that $2.00 level. I certainly am willing to pay up a bit if necessary but when measuring the risk/reward ratio I really feel I did the right thing. I am not the kind of person that will haunt this message board with taunts of "I told you so" since I have completed my warning remarks and look forward to this stock being much higher come the 2nd .and3rd qtrs. of their fiscal year/

    • Be careful gang, another strong market day and yet....???? I sense that the new hires are doing their jobs but it takes time to adapt to anything new and establish a sound relationship with your doctors. If the company doesn't come up with some decent black figures come CC day there is going to be a price to pay.

    • I wrote this a couple of weeks ago and other than my error in the multiplying factor (since corrected) it still stands. Just a reminder to the fence-sitters that despite the surprisingly strong market since this post the stock which has acted well even thru the public offering is or could be in that danger zone I referred to between now and the time of the next earnings release.. If we have that much talked about market weakness occur soon the $2.00 level (40 cents pre-split) is a distinct possibility. It is beginning to show some signs of erosion and we better get some decent earnings in the qtr, that being around five or more cents (pre-split) to give us a quarter or so in EPS. Don't forget the 20 new hires out in the field have to get their feet wet while being paid well so who knows what figure will show up at the next CC. I am not a bear or a short but I did sell pre-split and have my finds ready for re-investment when this period of uncertainty, especially in the general market, comes to an end. In my opinion a nickel EPS (25 cents) will support the stock at current prices and a dime 959 cents) will take us to a higher level. No earnings would be a nightmare. Good luck to everybody here.

    • winstoncheok Feb 7, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

      Ben, care to share some other leads and share wealth? I have holdings in cycc, nbs. Top 2 biggest in my portfolio.

      • 1 Reply to winstoncheok
      • Winston, I could never do that on a public board. When I was a stockbroker (all of my life) it was crucial that I knew exactly what my client wanted and needed in his portfolio, Everybody has different needs so it would be improper to comment on your positions. I can wish you good luck and suggest that in markets like the present don't get too trigger happy. By year-end the market will be higher than it is presently but there will be some real roller-coaster rides in between...Act accordingly.

    • justgarden Feb 7, 2014 8:55 AM Flag

      Could it be that the company knows the Orphan Drug status will be approved. Then there will be a huge buying of its shares, driving the price upward and infusing the company with cash?

    • Sorry guys, just read my post and I errored, of course if the model company earned a dime it would be a 50 cent per share earnings not 2.50 and a nickel earned resulting in a 25 cent eps.

    • cont'd...but in this case there are no earnings so our stock will find itself out there all alone with no earnings and selling at $2,50. That is an accident waiting to happen and it could well be a 40 cent stock ($2.00 (R/S-)However the good thing in this puzzle is that the company will be reporting in early May on their 1st qtr results and management has declared it will be a good one with the new larger sales force in action for the entire qtr. I believe him and feel maybe a nickel a share or 25 cents per share after R/S is a probability and that would fit the stock price nicely, It is the time between now and that May release that will probably punish this stock even more especially if this market correction lingers. Okay gang, I have laid it out there for make a decision.

    • winstoncheok Feb 7, 2014 7:53 AM Flag

      Benicior, likewise loss of 41 cents will be escalated by 5 times!

      • 1 Reply to winstoncheok
      • Righr Winston but that figure ihas been configured into the present destruction of the stock price and becomes a non-factor as we move forward. The danger zone is simply from now til early May and some will attempt to trade it and others ignore what I see as a real temporary danger in having the stock fall below this fifty cent level pre-split level and as low as $2.00 subsequent to the split if the market continues to be weak in the next few months.

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