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Jones Soda Co. (JSDA) Message Board

  • idjut_know_nothing idjut_know_nothing Aug 3, 2007 1:23 PM Flag

    For what it's worth...

    There is a lot of complaining about PVS "screwing up" and "missing this opportunity," but I don't see that he did either. Analysts predicted an EPS of 0.04, not PVS. They get it wrong, and PVS gets the blame?

    My moniker tells my investment abilities, so I don't have a lot to offer this (or any board). But here is my take as an individual: I don't like to carry debts or obligations. I would *much* rather "pay as I go," and I get the impression that that is what PVS is doing, too. His strategy meshes very nicely with my personal financial philosophy, so I am comfortable waiting for the long term. (Years, not weeks or months.)

    PVS is preparing the way for the future, which costs something now. And I think that's okay.

    What puzzles me -- and perhaps someone can enlighten me on this -- is why, given that the analysts seem to be wrong far more often than they are right, anyone gives any credibility to their predictions. It is clear that nearly everyone does, or we wouldn't see so many "JSDA misses" kinds of headlines. Misses what? Analysts WAGs, that's what.

    I'm down somewhat today, but not entirely unhappy with the opportunity to add lower than I ever thought I would.

    Today, next week, next month -- even next year -- don't amount to much. Where will this company and this stock be in ten years?

    Comments welcome! (Mockery not so much.... :>)

    Colin

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    • pure bull shit, you are

    • I think you know more than you think you do.

      Your's was a very intelligent (and honest) post. There will always be bashers but here is what counts:

      Low debt (and declining) rising revenue unique products strong balance sheet etc etc etc.

      The only thing I have against JSDA is a marketing strategy that is less than brilliant. They could do better in packaging, advertising, etc. Other than that I think it would be very risky to short this stock at this price.

      I expect $16 to $20 by year end. Watch and see.

    • Some good posts in here... I especially agree with Loop. Dead money...

      Here's what I put in my other post.

      -----

      I came, I saw, I lost... Do'h

      I still like this Co. long term, but the cost of leaving my money sit here is too high. Wounds now licked and ready to make back the losses.

      Now 100% out of this stock. Will be back for the next confrence call, but without a position. PVS will have to prove to me that they can deliver before I go long for anything other then a quick trade (say news pump about cola, etc.)

      Not that you should listen to a guy who just lost 20%, but I'm thinking that this stock is:
      -Currently being proped up by shorts covering.
      -Could easily see 10$ or lower soon.
      -Is dead money or worse until they deliver on Earnings.

      After what I heard last night, I'm thinking that the Q108 call will be the one to watch. But PVS and his band will have to learn not to say "We're still learning." Wow...

      Congrats again, we'll fight another day.

    • Well......I will be on Cramer tonight and I will ask him what he thinks....for what its worth.

    • Most investors cannot think for themselves. They truly are lemmings that follow the herd. Brokers buy their shares at low prices...upgrade the shares and sell them to their lemming customers who sap them right up. Our profits come harder. To lemmings, analyst opinions count. I think its always been that way. Longs bet against the street and got caught in the short term.

    • Very good post and I share your enthusiasm. However, I believe the next quarter earnings are the key to this stock moving up. By then they will have sales results from new accounts and if they are ever going to do it, would have worked out the distro. problems. If they miss I will be long gone if they cannot turn it around by then it won't happen. I continue to be long but very concerned.

    • What do you mean, pay as you go? They are on the full accrual basis and match expenses to revenues. You seem to be infering he's booking future expenses now. Better go back and look at the financials.

      And if he thumbs his nose at the analysts and the stockholders, he certainly is at fault for this decline. And long term, the kids he has drinking his "Soda" may move on to the next hot thing and the overhead will bankrupt him. So in the long term your dollar cost averaging may en up with a value of zero.

      Did you know that PVS has a whore house on the top floor of his corporate offices. The fucking overhead is killing him.

      • 1 Reply to jonesdupe
      • JD --

        Thanks for your comments. It is entirely possible -- and it would not be surprising! -- if I misunderstood what I heard in the CC. That was a whole day ago, so it's a little vague in my mind now; I will listen again. What I (vaguely, now!) recall had to do with some costs covered upfront that could have been spread out over some time.

        <So in the long term your dollar cost averaging may en up with a value of zero.>

        I could certainly be wrong about where the company is heading, but I think BK is a very low probability event. I do agree with one respondent that, even though my horizon is very long, the next Q is pretty important -- they don't necessarily have to meet analyst expectations, but they will need to demonstrate to me that what I perceive as prep work right now really will pay off. All I ask is evidence, and I will be content to wait it out.

        <Did you know that PVS has a whore house on the top floor of his corporate offices. The fucking overhead is killing him. >

        *Chuckle!*

        Thanks again,

        Colin

    • Not really, an analyst asked during the LAST cc if they still planned on achieving their objective of 50% growth this year, PVS from what I remember said "Yes" Go listen to the cc from Q1 and see if I'm right. So though they don't give guidance, in essence they did give guidance and are now lowering guidance. I felt absolutely no confidence from PVS or Jones management during this cc, it felt bleak and gloomy like they don't know what they are doing and not confident. I wouldn't be surprised if next quarter they miss again, with other excuses, more lowering of guidance and the usual reason that this is a long term investment. Next quarter is literally make or break time for this company surviving imo. The street only has so much patience. If they can show a strong profit and growth it will begin to rise again, from what price I don't know, probably much lower than here. If they screw up one more time this will truly then become a looooooonnggggg term investment. They need to prove their competent by knowing how to run a business and make money, not be a charity.

    • I think you hit it on the head.

    • After the dust has settled, im a Forced Long now haha see you all in a year above $20...

 
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