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Jones Soda Co. (JSDA) Message Board

  • o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w Aug 9, 2013 6:04 AM Flag

    Ongoing misconception

    There has been some ongoing misconception and misinformation being proliferated on the board for some time now regarding Q3 vs. Q2. A number of posters have and continue to state that Q3 is stronger than Q2. In fact, that is not true at all.

    I've reviewed Q3 vs. Q2 for the past 10 years and the best you could say is that Q3 is no better than being flat compared to Q2. In 6 of the past 10 years Q3 sales have been down compared to Q2. In only 2 of the years was there an increase in sales (of 4% and 2%) for Q3 over Q2. In the other 2 years sales were flat between Q3 and Q2. In those 6 years when Q3 has been down in comparison to Q2, it is generally by a large amount - 5% to 25%.

    Summary - Q3 is most always NOT stronger than Q2. The probability (in my mind) for this year is likely -5% to +10% at best.

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    • fahtco@gmail.com fahtco Aug 9, 2013 10:35 AM Flag

      You are correct, only 2 out of 10 Q3s were better than Q2. so everything else being equal odds are flat or less in Q3. But this is CUE3!

    • How many of those years did they include the ramping up of a new marketing program and linked distribution program? A failure to show a signiificant sales pick up in Q3 this year would indicate that they did not have the succes they prepared for since 2012. Perhaps you have not really followed or understood what they have been saying for the past 6 months.

      It's understandable that Q2 would not show any markes revenue growth, since there was a long delay getting new product and program in gear. Not seeing growth in Q3 would mean they missed their mark. I don't think that is what we will see.

      • 1 Reply to amplastbag
      • I have followed very closely what has been said for the past 6 months. I've heard Jennifer pitching a "return to our roots" enough that it sounds like a broken record already.

        I do not expect to see a "significant" sales pick up in Q3. I think it will be similar to the historic norms - possibly slightly better as I said in the original post.

        You may want to go replay the call and jump to the Q&A where the caller was actually saying that Q3 should be better than Q2 and you can sense that there was a little hesitation from Jennifer.

    • bhuston77@gmail.com bhuston77 Aug 9, 2013 9:35 AM Flag

      Fiat promotion started the last month of Q2....results will show up in Q3, and though the trend has been down between Q2 and Q3, I expect a reversal this year.

    • I did the same analysis and agree. However I think there is upside as summer sales initiatives gained traction in Q3. Maybe we see first quarter of yoy sales growth or at least end of yoy sales declines - a step in the right direction.

 
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