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Jones Soda Co. (JSDA) Message Board

  • baldingcontrarian baldingcontrarian Jan 20, 2014 7:39 AM Flag

    PEIX is going to earn 18MM this qtr

    1.08/share. After adding back depreciation, that is well over 20MM in free cash for the quarter.
    REX will earn about 2.5-2.75 for the quarter.
    In current margin environment, PEIX has 1.50/per qtr earnings power once they open their idled plant and buy the remaining 9% of their plants. Those two things alone will give them $5/share more earnings power in 14.
    You say Baldy how can you know this. Easy. We know their gallons per quarter and so all we need is margins per day. Guess what? I found the exact data I needed to forecast their profitability.
    Oh and guess what? When I ran the numbers for past quarters WHERE WE HAVE THE RESULTS, my modeling was within 5% on all three back tests I performed on BOTH COMPANIES.
    Do you want to see something extraordinary? Go look at how the analyst projects the upcoming reports for the two stocks.
    On REX hes been under by 900%,12%,50% the last 3 quarters. He predicts a 1.15, I show over 2.50/share
    Historically the ethanol stock fortunes lag the major moves in margins by 2-3 months, giving me ample to time to crush the market.
    I thought peix would see 10+ as you shall recall. My new target in the current operating environment is
    20-40/share.
    The doubters will have to swallow their pride as my modeling bears fruit in the upcoming weeks.
    You now have the best earnings estimates on earth. No one has better data than what I was able to find. That is how you do DD.

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