people on this board were worrying about falling ethanol prices when I pounded the table in dec/Jan
you people cost other people who you scares, a lot of money!
Ethanol Prices Surge as Rail Problems Cut Supply
By NICOLE FRIEDMAN
March 16, 2014 4:44 p.m. ET
U.S. ethanol prices are surging, as supplies shrink amid transportation constraints.
Ethanol for delivery in April rose 6.9% last week to $2.467 a gallon, the highest settlement since Dec. 4 on the Chicago Board of Trade. Prices are up 40% from a low of $1.757 a gallon reached Jan. 27.
A bitterly cold winter and rising crude-oil shipments
Other than you and maybe one lost soul no one on this board has paid any attention to Ethanol. You made a good buy and are enjoying a nice ride. I see you never got the message that no one else cares about it.
balding - yes they sell at spot but futures are an indication of future spot. Q1 and Q2 will be blowouts as CME ethanol and CBOT corn prices are 2.45 and 4.78 compared to 1.86 and 4.35 in Q4. If futures ultimately become spot then Q4 2014 CME and CBOT EtOH and corn prices may be 1.83 and 4.81 compared to 1.86 and 4.35 in Q4 2013. So expect margins to peak in Q2 or Q3 and possibly flatten or shrink in Q4. You might be right about upside, but don't get too greedy.
note that the ethanol trend is short term as further out futures are closer to year ago prices. so Q1 and maybe Q2 could prove to be blockbusters, but not Q3 and Q4. as price rises so does risk. but who am i to argue - thus far you have been on the money with there stocks. i'm always open to new ideas as portfolio is diverse.