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Jones Soda Co. (JSDA) Message Board

  • baldingcontrarian baldingcontrarian Mar 29, 2014 9:05 AM Flag

    PEIX$, see BIOF buyout offer friday night. See record ethanol prices and margins for 2 weeks straight

    peix does 400kg/day at 2.25 margin last 10 days, they are making over 1MM per day profit, 40k hour profit, over 600 dollars a Minute. Or $1/eps the last 2-3 weeks of the quarter ALONE!.
    Look at weekly chart 3 years on stockcharts. set to linear not log.

    I got lucky and on Thursday am bot 240 call contracts for the near term to go with 3k shares.
    Stock will cross 20 this week easily as it cruises through 30 soon.

    looking at 120MM EBITDA easily in 2014.

    a 6x multiple puts the stock at 35$. Probably hits 50 in reality.

    Someone bot 3400 april 17.5's late on Friday as I watched him follow me in. competitors saw no action on options.

    someone made a 300k dollar bet for the next 3 weeks.

    Get filthy rich with me.

    gl.

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    • nuttierthansquirrellshiat nuttierthansquirrellshiat Apr 14, 2014 9:59 PM Flag

      Dilution. dilution,dilution,....ooh.ooh.ooh.eee,eee,eee,aah,aah,aah....

    • Baldy - you've made me a believer in PEIX but I'm a bit of a novice so I appreciate the advice - why only a 6x multiple? Seems ultra conservative. I hear 10x get thrown out as best guess. I see GPRE consistently trading at 20+ and isn't the industry average at least 10? Also, what's your prediction for Q1 Fully Diluted EPS? I know Ethanol prices have spiked in March but February and January were much lower so I'm getting around a 2.20 average (am i way off here)? Corn Bushels between 4.50 and 4.92 for the quarter. So i'm getting around 30m net income for the quarter and lets say $1.87 EPS. Are my numbers off?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to smitty737
      • Hi Smitty,
        You dug right in to the numbers which is commendable.
        For margin modeling Its easier than one may surmise.
        just search iowa st CARD historical ethanol margins
        see the lovely chart and below that is a link for the raw data right up to Friday the 21st.
        it will be updated sun or mon to include up to 28th.
        peix sells at west coast eth pricing, typically was 50-100 cents higher than the ASGO number you have. Interestingly things are so tight in the Midwest now that as of Friday all locations around the country had reached parity around $4/g.
        so the avg you have is 50-80 cents low, but more importantly is the overall margin, corn and eth are the biggest but not only factors,
        DDG pricing
        inedible corn oil pricing
        'nat gas pricing
        RIN prices,

        all add to the equation, but using the model I mentioned above I back tested margins and resultant cash flow from previous known quarters, ie earnings results, and the model is tremendously accurate in most instances. That is why I'm putting so many chips on pixie. transparency of margins and known gallons sold in a given quarter. So the calculus is mostly avail. to those who endeavor to utilize, analyze and rationalize the numbers.

        now biof gets an offer for 275mm and biof only has 180mm in tax loss carryovers and 10mm cash as assets. lol and they have 7 employees too. Based on that peix is worth north of 2bb. but in reality peix is given 6xcash flow multiple b/c I want to be conservative. multiple expansion gets to 50+ share price.

        Anyways I hope all that helps.
        Just know this. Insiders have seen their stock go from 2.33 in nov 2013 to 18.2 so far and didn't sell one share. Are we going to bet against them?
        Ignore the value proposition and shock and awe earnings in late april?
        Ignore the 2-3x p/e multiple, 1/5th of competition?
        Are we going to ignore that they will have net of debt, cash by EOY 2014?
        Prime takeover candidate due to pacific rim proximity of plants. really makes peix more valuable per gallon

 
JSDA
0.375+0.0050(+1.35%)Dec 17 3:54 PMEST

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