at this point -- based on fundamentals. In my opinion, in order for us to go to the next price level, we will need some type of positive announcement , i.e. increased forward earnings projections or a stock split.
Hope everyone is well. Also, as a previous poster pointed out -- everyone just cast a one star vote on the spam posts.
Hey Jimmie -- Obviously, I could not resist the urge to respond to your post. If you are truely a MTW investor try reading some of older posts for further insight into why some feel the current price is so-called fairly valued. The current price is always based on future earnings -- if and I stress if, there is no raise in earnings projections then the stock has already taken into account earnings of 5.00 to 5.50 for 2008. The unknown variables as always, are managements earnings projections. While many expect 2009 earnings to continue the strong growth pattern, most analyst do not utilize 2009 in their price projections, as the nature of the crane business is often too unpredictable.
Take a look at two major independent analytical models -- Value Line Investment Survey and Standard and Poors. Both take a 3-5 year approach. Until recently S&P had a strong buy,their recent downgrade to hold illustrates their concern that the company may not be able to continue its' VERY strong growth. However, S&P will be quick to adjust their rating if management raises expectations. Value Line currently rates MTW as a strong buy -- not because they believe the company has long term appeal. Rather, their current buy rating is based on technical factors, not fundamentals. In other words, from a techincal perspective the stock is hot -- VERY HOT and therfore one should buy and enjoy the short term ride. However, they no longer see MTW as having long term appeal because of the cyclical nature of the business. Does this mean that we are the peak? Who knows? Again, read the old post -- I do not believe that any of the serious posters have said to sell.
Toby, re: your question about foreign sales----management indicated in the last conference call that crane sales, the largest segment of the company, are now 46% from foreign markets. This is up considerably from the 5% level of foreign sales in 1999. Hope this information is useful.
I absolutely agree. The price could be too low. I'm just trying to be reasonable about expectations. I've already got a triple on this so I just want to be careful about how I proceed. Someone with an entry point later than mine can legitimately have different expectations.
I think if we get good earnings guidance we can up the price targets. Just trying to have some dry powder ready to buy any opportunity should one arise.
I haven't yet found the info on the percentage of foreign sales or margins but articles I have found indicate a healthy appetite in BRIC and ROW markets that seem to be holding steady or even growing.
Companies with foreign sales activity were expected to do better relative to domestics with no foreign sales and this co. is behaving accordingly.