Here's my $.02 worth: How many of us are "true" market watchers? Many of us are "true" MTW watchers. The 1st thing I do when I turn on my computer is to go to my favorites and check on my stocks. I do this twice a day,once in the morning and again in the late afternoon. If I'm lucky, I may check them out during my work day, but that's very seldom.
How much time do I have during my busy schedule to check out other stocks ? Very little if any. I think most people on here are in the same boat I'm in.
If I were retired or if I were in the business of watching the stock market, than I would have alot more time on my hands. How many "listings" are out there ? 10,000. and how many of those do we have time to analyze? . Again for me not much. I don't think I'm alone on this either. So where do I go if I have some extra cash "collecting dust" and want to invest it? Do I go to a stock broker ? Which one?, We all know how R.W.Baird has miscalled this stock and if they've done that to this stock (MTW), how many other companies have they "Down graded" only to see that Company take off? One company I have is ASBC, it's a bank stock and it's been upgraded by Baird. Since the upgrade their stock has been tumbling. Oh did I forget to mention Baird is owned by ASBC.
I think my situation is like many of us "long" timers. I think that's the problem with many investors. They have some cash to invest but don't have the time to check out where to invest it. So they invest it in a company they're familar with. A company in the town (or near) they live in. Heck if I lived in Atlanta, I'd probably own alot of Coke stock. People now a days want "Fast Money", they want a company that they can make a bundle over night and than jump to another company. Unfortunately MTW is not that type of Co. You may make a Bundle, but it's not going to happen over night. I think that's the problem here. Any stock broker who has watched this company (MTW) knows this. Again, unfortunately they're aren't too many brokers out there watching this stock or not watching it enough.
"The Company releases good news for 2008" ?? The last 3-quarterly reports were all good and those reports only gave this stock a slight "Giggle". "Low Volumn" Maybe it's low because people (outside this area) never heard of MTW. Also I don't think 1.7-1.9 million shares is that low. The real only low day lately was the day after Thanksgiving, you know that 1/2 day of trading. "Feds cutting the rate",, how many times has the Fed cut the rate in the last 3 quarters? twice ?? If that's what we're "Hanging our hats on",,I'm switching hats.
All the good news we've seen over the last 3 -quarters hasn't done Squat for this comp. WE ALL KNOW this company is doing great, but "John Q Public" isn't hearing about it. Hell even Terry isn't exersizing his options. What does that tell you??
"If the market goes up MTW will go up"?? Since when does the market going up have any effect on this company. If you are a Long Timer you'd know that from past experience. Up until lately it was just the opposite.
Available steel?? lol,, I'll bet MTWC uses more steel/cast iron in one crane than Ford uses in 1 months worth of cars. Now add all the steel the Ice div. & the Marine div.use in one month and I'll bet MTW uses 10 times the amount of steel that any car manufacturer use in 1 year. One car weighs 4000 lbs (and how much of that is steel), one crane weighs 1,000,000 lbs.and it's all steel/cast iron. At that usage, MTWC sure as hell better get preferential treatment from the steel mills.
Last year MTW released there guidance for 2007 on Nov 28,2006. (You can check the release on the company web site.) The company said they will release guidance for 2008 before the end of 2007. Therefore, we should expect that update this week or next week based on past releases. The company may want to be cautious and wait for more data before releasing its guidance for 2008. Maybe this report will give us a pop in the stock. The stock seems to be holding above its 50-day average. I think all investors are a little apprehensive about future reports, hence the stock volatile stock action! Good luck to all longs.
That is why I don't read any analyst reports. I do the research myself. and I am not retired and have limited time. But my money is important and investing is important to me. I want to be responsible for the gains and the losses.
I was just reading something by Munger and he wrote about his friend who bets on horse racing. Very seldom does he bet but when he finds an obvious misprice in the line, he plays big.
Same here. Obvious misprice all the way around. I am here waiting till they "cross the line" no matter if that is 3-5 years or longer from now.