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The Manitowoc Company, Inc. Message Board

  • bobby2loaves bobby2loaves Nov 14, 2008 2:51 PM Flag

    MTW could exceed cash value at end of 1Q09

    cash at end of 3Q08 = $382mm
    sale of marine division in 4Q08 = $100mm
    estimated net profit for 4Q08 = $85mm
    estimated net profit for 1Q09 = $83mm
    (rough, but conservative) estimate of ice divestitures in 1Q09 = $350mm

    total cash at end of 1Q09 = $1B

    at the current $7 a share, MTW's entire market cap is a mere $900mm.

    now, i will grant you, this does not include MTW's debt load of $2.XB dollars. but it is a curious thought that at $7/share, MTW could buy back all of its shares 5 months from now, and still have $100mm in the bank.

    kinda strange for a company trading like it is about to go out of business.

    with that said, i sure am getting tired of cheerleading for this stock.......

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    • I sure didn't buy this stock at anywhere near it's highs but it doesn't matter. It's unbelievable how hard this stock has been hammered! I'm guessing everybody on this board who holds MTW stock is in the same boat as I am.

      I'm not looking for remorse or a pat on the back saying it's going to be ok and that this is a great long term buy. I've been hearing stocks are cheap since the peak in Oct 2007.

      This drop can't solely be from the Enodis deal. I just think so many rally chasers, hedge funds, readers of IBD, and believers in the middle east/china/india infrastructure growth story felt this was a way to get in on the action and sold it hard. Either way, I usually check up on this stock just to see how much it's down today.

      For now, this stock is just another one of those value traps. I wouldn't be surprised to see it get gobbled up by some private equity institution.

      By the way, anybody know Moroney's Dow Theory standpoint on this stock? He was pretty bullish at the highs and last I knew he was still riding it down to the single digits.

      • 2 Replies to trekmadone1500
      • He is suggesting Buy

      • hi murahrah

        it's the looney tune here again. yes, i realize this company is $2B in the hole.

        but, as i detail above, they also will have a ton of liquidity here (they paid for Enodis with a bond offering - - not cash.) A billion dollars in cash should see them through the downturn without having to raise any additional capital in a difficult funding environment. and as i stated above, the cash amount will soon be equal to an amount larger than their market cap.

        have you been listening to the company's estimates lately? they estimate 2x debt-to-EBITDA by the end of 2009. that's a lot closer to (in fact, beyond) my recent estimates than yours.

        as i recall, a few weeks ago, you said you would buy MTW when it got down to 7.50 or so. how much have you picked up?

    • I follow your logic and have a question for you or anyone that wants to chime in. If theoretically MTW would have more cash on hand than the market cap, or even close. Why would they pay down debt so fast from the Enodis deal?

      Why not buy back shares at this distressed price? Wouldn’t that create more shareholder value?

    • mayor hedge funds and brokerage firms i.e. goldman were shorting the stock, Soooo they could be 1st in line for profits when the obama freight trains leaves the station !!!!!

      NOW that the hedgee's are covering due to HUGE margin calls, mtw is a victim of their success.

      buy all you can at this price. after nov 30, 2008 back to 10.00 then 12.00 by jan 1, 2009

 
MTW
25.89-1.17(-4.32%)Sep 19 4:01 PMEDT

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