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The Manitowoc Company, Inc. Message Board

  • checklist_34 checklist_34 Jul 1, 2009 1:05 AM Flag

    former MTW long, liking it again

    MTW stands, to date, as my single worst investment ever. Its 3/4 my own fault, 1/2 inexperience, and 1/4 the fact that lets face it, this company hasn't exactly been perfectly run over the last 2 years.

    But at $5, biggest crane company and biggest food service equipment company around, loan worked out to avoid a covenant violation scenario...

    It occurs to me that this could be a good long term buy at $5. I know the balance sheet isn't good, and I know that both of their business segments, to some extent, are a play on economic recovery. But the stock has what it takes to be a multi-bagger at some future date.

    My post has a primary purpose of posing one basic question:

    -has anybody reviewed the new covenants and calculated/estimated the likelihood of a violation at some future time?

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    • Two wrongs don't make a right.MTW and ITW..
      They were simply too over-aggressive. You can put all the spin you want on it(nothing personal).These are supposed to be smart exec's.
      They have to be feeling lower than 'whale $hit'
      right now.

    • Don't self flagellate too much. You would have done poorly with almost any industrial stock purchased pre-crash. I disagree that MTW was not well run. Their single preventable problem was timing of aquiring Enodis. We can't even be certain of that as we don't know what penalties attached to reneging. Remember ITW was prepared to acquire at the same time and almost the same price. Subsequent problems result from the economy. They managed to make money in the 1st quarter. No mean feat.

      A second default is a function of sales which is based on the ecomony. I rate it 50/50. I hear cogent arguments for recovery and conversely continuing disaster. IMO it will be somewhere in the middle. i.e. a survivable recovery for some depending on the industry. Our model is still growth which requires machines. So the worst I see for MTW is consolidation.

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