Just posted this in another thread, that unfortunantly, turned into a pissing match so I decided to start a new thread.
I have been with gluu about 6 months. I have 9600 shares purchased at $3.70-3.75 and 4000 shares purchased at $5.40-5.50. I have rode gluu to 60% gains then all the way down to 50% losses in a 6 month time frame. I am a long term holder and not a day trader. However, I am realistic and do have some problems with the company currently. Here are my thoughts and I am looking for honest discussion about the company and their products:
No doubt the acquisitions diluted our shares here big time. It also put profitability 8-12 months behind if not longer. Real shame.
Long term it should make them stronger, however with MUCH MORE overhead costs they really better put out some winners or they will burn through the cash FAST, and thats where I am getting nervous.....
No new games in over a month. And severl of the last few (Circus City, Space City and Star blitz) have had poor results at best. I am also not expecting much out of that African Safari game, as GLU themselves have said that only 1 (Bug Village) out of the 7 casual games produced have made any profits at all. Thats a very low hit rate. They are LOSING money on their casual gaming sector big time.
The game/app I was most excited about was Tunity and we have heard nothing since it was anounced as a new game being released in the summer over 4-5 months ago. I have emailed customer relations about the progress and will update the board with their response.
We have heard nothing about Frey and we have heard nothing about Blammo (remember they have been working with Blammo since February and chose to acquire them in August).
This company has to have a steady arsenal of new games, new updates and new ideas to stay cutting edge, lately they have not.
In fact, if you have a droid go to the market place and read the user reviews about the new update for Gun Bros. Review after Review are once happy customers who can no longer play the game without a force close since the last update. I am talking 80-100 negative reveiews per day since the last update. That is not good.
Technically speaking the chart looks bad, but I am not nearly as concerned with that as I am the content.
Zynga is making a strong push in mobile and has ALOT more cash and assets. If Glu doesn't produce a better fall lineup for games we could be in for a problem. Only 2 of the 6 games for the summer lineup have had any success. It won't take long to be financially upside down with that sort of hit rate.
Still long on gluu, unfortunantly much longer than I wanted to be due to acquisitions and dilution. However, I need to start seeing some positive press, new game releases and successful game titles or it may be time to cut my losses. GLTA.
Don't underestimate Zynga, they have a ton more cash than we have, a ton! And they are willing to spend it.
One of my favorite games on my mobile phone is words with friends, it is cross platform. I play this game (similar to scrabble) with 8-10 of my friends. As long as they have a smartphone I can play them. Zynga now owns this game and already has made changes.
The biggest is advertisment. Everytime you make a play and sumbit your word an advertisement comes up. My last 3 have been advertisements by Zoosk (online dating) Radio Shack and Zynga Poker Game.
Just checked my Marketplace for Droid and Words with Friends has 10 million plus downloads and 296,000 reviews.
Zynga poker has a 4.5 out of 5 star rating with 1 million plus downloads and 72,000 reviews.
To put that in context, Gluu's best game Gun Bros has 1 million plus downloads and only 61,000 creviews (1/5 the amount of reviews and downloads of Zyngas Words with Friends) and Eternity Warrios has only 100,000 plus downloads (hasn't even hit a million yet) and only 4,000 reviews.
Now, I like our games and I know those two should make money, but the fact is if this company is going to be a threat on mobile, CASUAL gaming is a must. I believe that was the main reason for acquiring blammo games (they were the brainchild that created zombies vs. plants).
But, if their model is correct and microtransactions is your main source of income, the amount of downloads and players has to grow. Zynga has 3 games available in the droid marketplace with 2 being free. Both of the free games already have more downloads, more users and more reviews than all of gluus games.
Zynga is going to buy their way to being the top dog and our timeline is shrinking quickly to get out ahead of them. The summer releases failed imo and that is my concern.
Best post I've seen in a while on the board. I'm long in GLUU but I find posts that state it's going to $100/share with nothing to back it up to be as useful as shorts that claim the stock is worthless.
Gun Bros, Contract Killer, Big Time Gangsta have been successful, but those games have been out for a while and are no longer top 25 grossing games on the iPhone. I had high hopes for Eternity Warriors but the sales on that seem to have slipped and I'm not sure it'll be as successful as the previously mentioned games.
If GLUU can come out with a true blockbuster that could change things, but right now they seem to be a company that makes semi-popular games versus blockbusters. On the flipside they might be able to become a top tier mobile publisher and perhaps the acquisitions will result in some new hits.
Anyway, I'll wait for Phil to enlighten us more on these points. I find his perspective to be invaluable.
Without his all capitalized, poorly spelled ad hominem attacks against me I feel I'd be lost.
Oh yes two points I neglected to mention.
1) I realize that "dominating" the casual game sphere is more easily said than done. Big uphill battle for GLUU but I'm a) glad they are getting into the fight now and b) action/adventure gaming is their strength right now and will forge the paths to profits first.
2) I neglected to mention the deal w/ TOM and the opening of the Chinese market....am I off here? This sounds INCREDIBLY positive to me. Why is this not mentioned more?
Agreed, I'm not a fan of the city building games either.
I think all of GLUU's promise is in the action arena. Gun Bros, and more specifically (my favorite waste of time...) Eternity Warriors.
Also, the recent acquisitions are exciting to me because it seems to me (unless I'm mistaken) this is going to lead to good teams being put together for casual games.
I'd love to see GLUU get a stranglehold on both the action/adventure games and casual.
As far as Zynga, etc....I'm not worried about them. GLUU intends to be platform neutral, if they can pulls this off (which, it looks to me they can), this will put them in THE catbird seat in mobile gaming.
Zynga lives and dies by the success of Facebook.
Very well said. A lot of the discussion here is just yelling and screaming. I'm a long term holder too (originally got in at a very small amount at 1.19 but since averaged to 3.9). I share some of the same concerns you do.
Yes, the company has cash, which is good, but it'll burn through that cash. The acquisitions HAVE to be accretive to earnings next year or the company will be broke (sure they can dilute more but who wants that?).
That said, of course they will come out with some games between now and then which can buy them time. Obviously the acquisitions are a gambit. In order for this company to be viable, those acquisitions really have to pay off.
Reading the latest quarterly report is like a parade of horrors of things that can go wrong to derail the company.
I'm an optimist and am hopeful that the company can come up with some good content to drive earnings. I agree that the uncertainty stems from the lack of content right now.
Okay, so if I'm not mistaken, your two main problems are ...
1) Not enough new games
2) You have a problem with the acquisitions that are greatly enhancing their studio capacity so they can release more games...
Not enough games and poor game releases this summer are HUGE concerns.
This company only makes money with successful titles. They spent 6 months per game developing the 6-7 summer titles (no idea on tunity) and only 2 have been successful per them. Bug Village and Eternity Warriors.
If that doesn't concern you that 4-5 titles have been unsuccessful and cost a lot of money I don't know what to tell you.
And yes, they have not released any games due out in the fall. All they told us is to expect Blammos first release in December and Grips first release in first quarter 2012. That leaves alot of months for the shareholder to get beat to death, don't you agree?
They were just speakers at two conferences this month and didn't talk at all about new releases or upcoming titles. We have not heard of the projects they are spending millions working on since April 2011. Sorry but as a shareholder I don't like that.
From PocketGamer back at the end of May:
Of all the games Glu detailed during its press day, there's no doubt Tunity was the biggest surprise as well as its most ambitious title.
The brainchild of chief creative officer Giancarlo Mori, it mixes up location, music and social aspects: think of it as Foursquare meets Digg meets iTunes.
The basic interaction is you can tag any location in the world that has a postal or zip code (i.e. is listed on Google Maps) with any music track from iTunes.
You can do it in situ - for example, automatically tagging the cafe you're in with the tune playing on your iPhone - or, more likely, selecting music and locations as you see fit.
GLUU had intended to release this in August. So, it could be any day now. Or it could be one of the reasons that Mori was canned.
Thanks for the post. I do remember reading that, but to be honest I didn't put two and two together with Mori. You could be absolutely right which would really suck. While it was an abitious title at least it was different and new and exciting.
Lets be honest how many "build a city" games can you have. Bug Village, Space City, Circus City, African Safari.....
And how many action games can you have? Gun Bros, Eternity Warriors, Men Vs. Machines, Contract Killer, Big Time Gangsta....
I mean they are just the same games basically reskinned. After a while gamers move on to new exciting games.
Tunity offered something new and exciting. I hope to get a reply from Customer Service in the next few days.