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Glu Mobile, Inc. Message Board

  • stock.tides stock.tides Feb 24, 2013 5:03 AM Flag

    Is Gluu tide turning again?

    Gun Bros 2 is in iPad top grossing 100.
    Stardom slipped a bit and now 108.

    Low balled Q1 estimates (17mm to 18.5mm) will be crossed very comfortably.
    1) Q1 smart phone revenue guidance was lowered by 1.5mm to 2.5mm compare with Q4’s.
    Q4 has only one hit game, CK2 made $2.7mm (released after 24 days into quarter)
    Stardom, Gun Bros 2 and CK2 together might make ~$2.5 mm or more. Wish Stardom or Gun bros 2 released 3-4 weeks earlier. Couple of more games scheduled to release in this quarter itself.
    Old games (EW2, Frontline Commando, Deer hunter reloaded) ranking slipping a bit compare with Q4. It’s expected with old games esp when there are no major updates...may be sequels in work.
    2) Stardom has highest ARPDAU 9.1 cents and the sequel is a hit in this quarter.
    3) Operating expenses continue to be lower
    Anyway, we should be able to gauge the Q1 performance in next 2-3 weeks.

    I think GLUU stock price goes to
    a) $3.30+ if Gun Bros 2 cracks top 50.
    b) $4.25+ if sequel Samurai vs. Zombies Defense 2 or other game cracks top 50
    c) $5.40+ by July if Ricchetti’s monetization plan works out on remaining games.
    Things to look for Guidance increase, Upgrades and Insider buying. As I’ve mentioned earlier, historically GLUU investors/trades upbeat between now and Aug. Delayed games, low monetization are the biggest concerns for last 3-4 months but there is a ray of hope now.

    I’ve bought 200 Sept $2.5 calls $0.30-$0.35. Will buy more if Market goes down and GLUU games perform well on iPad/iPhone. Of course, will do trading on gambling news / Najarian bragging.

    BTW, newbies make sure you put all bashers, pumptards, hour by hour price prediction trolls on not hesitate, I can guarantee you that not a single post will be useful. At max, you should be seeing 4-5 posts per day.

    Good luck.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • GB 2 is hold strong and climbing up the charts since its release last week. No doubt in my mind that this will crack top 25 grossing next week or so. This game has to potential to bring Glu back to the $4-5 levels again.

    • TY stock.tides for the valuable information. I haven't written this company off by a long shot as they circumvent the changing environment in this new global economic. In fact I have been accumulating at what I believe are rediculous prices. Unfortunately, I truly believe this this company will be bought out in the near future if and when the casino aspects unfold over the upcoming months. I would be very unsurprised to see Trump, Ballys, or other organization purchase them outright. The question is the valuation. It is very difficult to judge future potential, but I would not hesitate to predict in the $8.00 range this if it were to happen this year.

    • hollis.pc Feb 24, 2013 10:40 AM Flag

      There has been a lot of talk regarding ZNGA and Nevada, online gambling. I have no problem with this. What seems to be overlooked is Glu and online gambling. Glu positioned itself with online gambling long before ZNGA. Glu is in the UK and Italy with gambling. Glu is light years ahead of ZNGA with mobile. And now there is want by others states to get the tax money from online gambling.

      My point? I hold shares of ZNGA and may collect a few more. Glu has been ignored in the hype but not for long. As "stock.tides" points out Glu is doing well with its current releases. Also Glu plans to release many more games through out the year. Games withheld from the Q4. And Glu does have mobile online gambling. There is no question Glu will be moving up. Like ZNGA I expect to see $5 a share by July, and that's being conservative.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • chimpthepimp Feb 24, 2013 10:29 AM Flag

      blah blah blah. Basing price of shares on game ranks is #$%$. however. plenty here to listen

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