I don't really know how to put this any other way, but I think there is a significant number of crude traders who believe that resistance can be broken at 28 .... eventually .... so they are driven to keep trying to do it. My guess is that in the process of pushing crude up to 28 to try to breakthrough they are incurring some real losses and will eventually have to stop. Or, I guess it might eventually work. It seems to me that the entire range, from 24 - 28 is entirely speculator-driven, then again, that's what OPEC has been saying for months, as well.
I have posted under a number of names, but really have no agenda to push. I respect people posting under one name. Many of us youngsters, 27 find we are in unfamiliar terrority. I have been fairl bearish from 1999, but never made much money shorting. Looking at the OSX chart we see rig has underperformed it was 22 a couple years ago when osx was in the mid 50's. now it at almost the same price with osx 80. I was looking for a way to short crude this morning, still am. Cant believe crude is hanging in there at 27 today. Whats going on? Crude should be dumping, OPEC cheating, high storage, worldwide markets falling, I dont get it. Whats the market saying>
I have a few thoughts I will share: 1) Economic growth in the US will be much less than expected in the in the second half. 2)Rig rates are still flat 3) Exploration investment is down 4) Russia is again peakin 5) OSx may be a good buy here but this is a new paridigm, the general market will sink all ships.
Never been in a real bear, thinking about increasing what are now small positions in oih and uth. Happy to here any thoughts on my weakly worded druken message
And when Joyce leaves, we jump for Joy. Every morning finds us eagerly up at the crack of Dawn, we make Mary all day, and work hard every Eve. After those three, we Sally fourth. Hope-filled and Faith-full, we rest on our Laurels.
"Successful speculations arise naturally from the ordinary, simple, and humdrum events of life. Games, music, nature, hoodoo, horses, and sex are great teachers. The successful speculator expedites a current price to its inevitable level."
Victor Niederhoffer in the preface to _The Education of a Speculator_ (New York: Wiley, 1997, p. x)