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Transocean Ltd. Message Board

  • BEARMANGLED99 BEARMANGLED99 Aug 13, 2002 8:21 PM Flag

    THANKS DB!! I'm still long from last wk

    and I came very close to selling before API. Its strange to see crude back at 28 w. OSX at 80.

    Perhaps if Greeny came back and shorted we could sustain a nice rally for a few weeks.

    I'll keep tight stops.

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    • Too often we confuse the price of crude with the performance, or lackof, of the OSX. Too often we lose sight of "the condition of the market."

      When oil was at $10 per barrel, the economy was on the verge of the biggest economic bubble in our history. Demand was good but Saudi had flooded the market with supply in order to maintain market share. When OPEC decided to act as a cartel and control the flow of oil, the economy insured that oil and share prices would see better prices going forward.

      What's different today? We have a lack of demand. We have a weak economy. The only thing holding oil prices as high as it is, is the threat of war in the Middle East.

      Company earnings are down and estimates are being lowered even further. How can we have a sustained rally in the face of lower earnings? That's why all rallies of late have been technical of nature, and not driven by good fundamentals. This sector doesn't have good fundamentals at this time.

      In my opinion, all rallies should be sold into until we see capital spending on the rise. If the energy companies aren't willing to spend for growth, earnings won't grow, and if earnings won't grow, neither will share prices.

      Playing the market really isn't that difficult. What's difficult is keeping an open mind and take what the market will give. What the market has been willing to give is the opportunity to buy any retest of the lows and sell into the subsequent rally. Rinse and repeat.

      dabum

      • 2 Replies to dabum_jv2
      • your verbosity sickens me dabum aka krn. Your opinion is as outdated as the charts you read. I don't need a history lesson, what I need to know is when to buy and sell, possibly from some one who is heavily vested in stocks, and not just carrying on a mental masturbation with us an audience. You got a wife, take care of her. You got kids, spend time with them instead of posting your jibberish here twenty times a day

      • your verbosity sickens me dabum aka krn. Your is opinion is as outdated as the charts you read. I don't need a history lesson, what I need to know is when to buy and sell, possibly some one who is heavily vested in stocks, and not just carrying on a mental masturbation with us an audience. You got a wife, take care of her. You got kids, spend time with them instead of posting your jibberish here twenty times a day

 
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