I think they are going to disappoint tomorrow. The stock has been down for a reason while the other offshore drillers have been going up. Also a huge amount of put option buying today in it for 115. We will see how it goes.
I hate to rain on any parade, but there is no way that a stock is going to reach a new all-time high on this tape without absolutely crushing consensus guidance, with an absolute lack of any ambiguity that the something approximating the guidance will be met. From where I sit, I see the likelihood of that being close to zero. There is too much transpareny in the earnings of these companies to beat consensus guidance by a huge margin. And if history is our guide, these stock tend to trade with the sector even on earnings announcement. Countless times I have seen stocks do nothing after decisive beats, only to watch some other stock in the sector outperform, without any legit reason.
I hope I will be eating these words, as I have still have a nice position in NE (largely short puts at this point) as well as another energy services stock.
You state the March 115 puts lead today's RIG option volume. That is true.
However, you might notice that more money was spent today on the March $135 calls versus the March $115 puts by about 3:2 margin.
I'd be careful about shorting RIG, other than short-term... powerful story presented here by RIG CEO, Robert Long...
the only ones that will be disappointed are those of you who are short rig. We may well see a $10 to $15 gain tomorrow. Yes, let's see what happens. Good luck, you're gonna need it. lol
Best to all longs!
I don't think we've ever got a $10 or $15 pop in one day on RIG, and I don't see tomorrow as being an exception. $5 or more would make me extremely happy, but honestly, I just want the guidance to be somewhat positive. Whether the market reacts to that tomorrow or not, it doesn't matter-the longterm trend will be up.
You must be one of those in the PUT option group hoping for a poor report.
Q4 has no impact on what is going to happen. It's what they say about 2008 and the new contracts, like the two roll overs at higher day rates.
Actually I am just short. Looking for about 119 to cover. If it starts going against me premarket, I will get out most likely. Unless I think its a fake up. I will see what the numbers are and decide. I think it is a good company but I feel like oil is topping and rig could miss their number like the others did. We shall see.
will probably overshadow the earnings. The only thingt that could drag down these stocks is a poor outlook for offshore drilling.. im willing to bet the outlook is pretty good. Any weakness tomorrow with be a buying opportunity
We will see if they could beat the estamates tomorrow, if it starts climbing premarket I will probably cover. Short for now. Almost every single driller has gone down after earnings. BHI, SLB. They have all tanked. I am hoping the same happens to rig. But if it starts climbing, I will get out quick probably.