Initial success is running far above the companys' expectations so far which means the company will recognize lower upfront revenues going forward but instead getting a recurring monthly or annually revenue stream. The impact of this transition to next quarters revenue forecast will be close to $100 mln so this explains the downward guidance entirely.
With the company being in the very initial stages of the transition I wouldn't declare victory for Adobe yet but things are looking not too bad at this point in time.
Analysts on the call mostly took a neutral stance, too. So I wouldn't expect any surprises tomorrow morning. ADBE bears will issue some cautious commentary while ADBE bulls will tell you to take advantage of any guidance driven weakness in the stock. At the end of the day the stock price should be pretty much unchanged as the majority of the new subscription based offerings will roll out later this year and in 2013.
If forced to take action I would prefer the long side at this time as management was pretty upbeat on the call and the transition of the business model is running smoothly so far.