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Adobe Systems Incorporated Message Board

  • StockIceMan StockIceMan May 7, 1999 12:41 AM Flag

    ADBE keeps going up

    Looking very good

    Good Luck All

    StockIceMan
    http://stockiceman.com

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    • Buybacks are the equivalent of dividend increases
      but they are more visible and suggest greater
      confidence in future earnings. It is about time the company
      increased its dividend. We have not had an increase in
      several years.

    • A buyback is to reduce dilution of EPS for
      shareholders, to offset dilution that occurs due to issuance of
      stock options to employees (which are issued from the
      company's treasury share reserve).

      A split does not
      dilute - EPS changes in proporation to the split ratio
      as does the number of shares you own, so the net
      effect on earnings per share owned is zero - non
      dilutive. So a split is not at all out of line with a
      concurrent buyback program.

      I agree that $100/share
      is attainable in Y2K, but I don't understand the
      question you have about that affecting a decision to split
      or not.

    • DOW, NASDAQ, & S&P all sucking wind and ADBE holding over 70 on moderate volume. Smells like a plateau to me.

    • TraderJim,
      I think your assessment is awefully
      close but...

      I'm new at this, but wouldn't a
      buy-back (anounced 4/28) indicate that they want to
      *reduce* the number of shares "out there", rather than
      double it?

      Also, (rumor mill) some people inside
      the company believe that they could reasonably see
      $100/share by/at 2000. Wouldn't this also preclude the price
      drop (and cost) involved in a split? (granted, many
      stocks quickly return to their pre-split price, but
      aren't they, then, "sluggish" to reach new
      highs?)

      Just thinkin...
      EJ

    • Probably for riskier traders, but definitely worth checking out. Good luck.

      http://www.monsterstock.com

      GO ADBE

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    • I accidently looked at April 1998 data there -
      ignore previous post on Bear Stearns data. April 1999
      data is not yet out either.

      March 1999 data for
      Bear Stearns shows they traded 464,383 shares of ADBE,
      about 1.8% of that month's total, and in February 1999
      they traded 188,064 shares.

      It will be a while
      before we can get April and May data.

    • Bear Stearns is a registered Market Maker in ADBE
      stock, though they are historically one of the smaller
      players.

      For the month of April Bear Stearns traded 481,161
      shares of ADBE stock for themselves or on behalf of
      clients, which put them in 15th place among all ADBE MM's
      in terms of volume for April. That's about 1% of the
      stock traded for April. In March, they traded over 800K
      shares, so April was actually a light month for
      them.

      In a few weeks I'll have the May data, and we can
      see how their volume changed from April, and can
      compare that to the volume excess over normal volume for
      ADBE as a whole during May to see how that stacks up.

    • Not as strong as their buy rating, but they just
      started coverage so its not that big a deal.

      The
      fact that the price is already so high plays a big
      role in analyst ratings - they can be very positive
      long term about the company but if the stock is
      already fairly valued or high in their opinion, it will
      earn a lower rating from them until it moves
      lower.

      Bear Stearns official ratings
      are:

      Buy
      Attractive
      Neutral
      Unattractive
      Sell

      So they have no strong buy or recommended or
      accumulate type ratings as some others do. Attractive is
      just one notch down from the top.

      Now we know
      who was behind all the volume and the big move up
      from 66 to 74+ - Bear and their paying institutional
      clients. Figure they also bought a fair inventory along
      the way for their own in-house trading accounts, and
      an inventory to now sell to their own retail
      clients, as market-maker - this is the norm in the
      industry.

    • I mean, where is Attractive in the Bear Stearns hierarchy.
      Better than "Neutral" but not as good as "Buy"?

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