Looks like T.Rowe Price has confidence in ADBE
systems also. They are heavily invested in Adobe. See
their web site for investment information on their
Science & Technology
but I feel like a genius for buying in at 40. Of
course *all* my stock picks always do this (if only).
I've thought about getting out more than once, but
where else you gonna put your money these days?
Profits+cash-flow+cash+wired-to-the-web, what's not to like? At the moment I'm 20% sell
80% hold, and 4-1 isn't close.
Great, so Adobe will beat the earnings, my bet is
Adobe will show more than 75 cents. Everyone I know is
buying Acrobat and that is jsut great.
thinks it will take more than 40% of Quark's Market (wow
again)that is excellent. I was thinking may be 25% in first
year which is close to 70 mil. I like that. Based on
the news in this article, Adobe will fly this week. I
think train has left the station.
where this will end up. I've been through the
hills and valleys for many years and plan to stay long.
To illustrate the folly of predicting, the following
is a message from March 25, '99 from one of our more
"The big move was of course
pretty directly related to the upgrade combined by a
strong move in the Naz and S&P today, which adds index
buying to the mix. Also ADBE was short-term oversold on
the correction from the previous 55 level down to
At this point the S&P is about to become short-term
overbought again, on the hourly charts, and ADBE as well.
There is some resistance at 57-58, from a long time ago
(which makes it less reliable), and more at 60.
would still be a seller here, and would take advantage
of this upgrade pop to sell Friday AM, early, maybe
right at the open. If I had any left to sell (I don't
now), I'd be trying to get 57 or so.
moves even higher Friday or Monday, to 58 or more, I
would even short it, and plan to hold short into summer
- sometime May thru July. It could easily hit 58
here, and could go to 60 now too, for a few minutes,
hours or so, but I would not hope for that myself -
there is danger all around. This market could tank in a
very big way any day now.
We are very close to
meeting the Titanic Syndrome criteria, which generally
preceedes a crash. If we get one more strong down day with
advance/decline less than 1/4 or so, on heavy volume, the Titanic
Syndrome signal will be given.
BTW - It has been
many years since I saw an opportunity where I thought
a short in ADBE made any sense for anything but
very short term trades. The last big opportunity for
this was the big run-up to the 70's on the initial
Internet mania a few years ago. So I don't make this
recommendation often or lightly.
Remember that analysts
are almost always a lagging indicator - they always
turn bullish at the tops and bearish at the bottoms.
If ADBE gets a bunch more upgrades, then we're
really at a top."
Who knows, this may come to
pass. Like life, sometimes it's a crap shoot.
I am copying in a Dow Jones story that is out.
Wild is all I can say. It is not wise to look a gift
horse in the mouth, but 105??
DJ Adobe Up On
Confidence In Reaching Rev, Pft Goals
By Maria V.
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Adobe Systems Inc.'s (ADBE)
stock has been firing on all cylinders on
confidence that the company's products and better
operational controls will enable it to meet its fiscal
1999 financial targets.
Earlier Monday, the
stock set a record high of 105 1/4, the second record
in a row, up from Friday's
99 1/8. Including
Monday's high, Adobe's shares year-to-date have advanced
more than 125% from
their starting level of 46
Mike Savage, Adobe's director of investor
relations, said that investors are confident that the
graphics software company can meet its quarterly and
In addition, investors are
anticipating the company's imminent release of its
desktop-publishing software, said Merrill Lynch &
Co. analyst Jay Vleeschhouwer. The product will
ship by next week, according to Adobe.
InDesign will be a "very substantial source of incremental
revenue next year," Vleeschhouwer said,
that it will contribute in excess of $100 million to
Adobe's $1.24 billion in fiscal 2000
In the near-term, Adobe's goals are to increase
fiscal 1999 revenue by 15% and to boost operating
margins to 25% of revenue. In fiscal 1998, Adobe reported
a 2% decline in revenue to $894.8
operating margins of 18.4%.
Prior to the start of
its third-quarter quiet period Monday, Adobe told
investors that it was
comfortable with Wall Street's
estimates for the third quarter, Savage said.
company is expected to earn 73 cents per share for the
quarter ending Sept. 3, according to
Call/Thomson Financial. In the year-ago period, Adobe reported
earnings of 37 cents.
Earlier Monday, SoundView
Technology Group Inc. analyst Russell Crabs issued a
on the company, Savage said. Crabs
wasn't immediately available for comment.
Nasdaq trading, Adobe closed up 6, or 6.1%, at 105, on
volume of 1.63 million shares compared
daily volume of 1.02 million.
- By Maria V.
Georgianis; (201) 938-5244; firstname.lastname@example.org
Here's one possible answer:
interest has been quickly decreasing since May...the AUG
number must look even uglier. With today being options
expirations, perhaps the squeeze is on?
%decrease from prior
Anyone noticed that ADBE volume was 2.5x normal
yesterday. Looks like were headed for another 2MM day today.
All this when overall market volume is DOWN 20%! Not
to mention that we continue to hit news 52-week
highs while the overall market corrects.
suspect something big is up and there has been some
leakage of the news.
At this point Adobe is trading at 33 p/e =
94/2.84 on the average earning estimates, but
theoretically it should be trading at least 30 p/e (according
to its growth rate 15%). So there is not much gap in
the p/es, given that the earnings will be out Sept.
16th. I think shorting Adobe at this point is not a
good idea because, first Adobe could very well beat
the estimates by a good margin (plus there is chance
to split) and news releases for the new products are
expected soon(any day).
Questions to all.
we seen the bottom of market for 99 or will it
continue to slide down for the rest of the
Interest rates will definitely go up since cpi was not
Where we would go from here? TJ,
Aki, anyone�(need detailed analysis)?
Comparing to other software co.s, ADBE is in
upper range of valuations. It's run up a lot the past
week, and from a trading viewpoint is becoming a short
candidate (based strictly on overall market starting to