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Adobe Systems Incorporated Message Board

  • retired_at_thirtyfive retired_at_thirtyfive Aug 3, 1999 10:13 AM Flag

    T.Rowe Price fund invests big in ADBE

    Looks like T.Rowe Price has confidence in ADBE
    systems also. They are heavily invested in Adobe. See
    their web site for investment information on their
    Science & Technology
    Fund.

    http://www.troweprice.com/cgi-bin/navigator/framejump.cgi?TOP=/mutual/mutualFund
    HomeTop.html&LEFT=/mutual/mutualFundHomeLeft.html&RIGHT=/fundfacts/TRBCX.html

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    • but I feel like a genius for buying in at 40. Of
      course *all* my stock picks always do this (if only).
      I've thought about getting out more than once, but
      where else you gonna put your money these days?
      Profits+cash-flow+cash+wired-to-the-web, what's not to like? At the moment I'm 20% sell
      80% hold, and 4-1 isn't close.

    • Great, so Adobe will beat the earnings, my bet is
      Adobe will show more than 75 cents. Everyone I know is
      buying Acrobat and that is jsut great.
      WOW, Adobe
      thinks it will take more than 40% of Quark's Market (wow
      again)that is excellent. I was thinking may be 25% in first
      year which is close to 70 mil. I like that. Based on
      the news in this article, Adobe will fly this week. I
      think train has left the station.
      congrats to
      longs,
      -smx

    • where this will end up. I've been through the
      hills and valleys for many years and plan to stay long.
      To illustrate the folly of predicting, the following
      is a message from March 25, '99 from one of our more
      knowledgeable posters:

      "The big move was of course
      pretty directly related to the upgrade combined by a
      strong move in the Naz and S&P today, which adds index
      buying to the mix. Also ADBE was short-term oversold on
      the correction from the previous 55 level down to
      50-ish.

      At this point the S&P is about to become short-term
      overbought again, on the hourly charts, and ADBE as well.
      There is some resistance at 57-58, from a long time ago
      (which makes it less reliable), and more at 60.

      I
      would still be a seller here, and would take advantage
      of this upgrade pop to sell Friday AM, early, maybe
      right at the open. If I had any left to sell (I don't
      now), I'd be trying to get 57 or so.

      If ADBE
      moves even higher Friday or Monday, to 58 or more, I
      would even short it, and plan to hold short into summer
      - sometime May thru July. It could easily hit 58
      here, and could go to 60 now too, for a few minutes,
      hours or so, but I would not hope for that myself -
      there is danger all around. This market could tank in a
      very big way any day now.

      We are very close to
      meeting the Titanic Syndrome criteria, which generally
      preceedes a crash. If we get one more strong down day with
      advance/decline less than 1/4 or so, on heavy volume, the Titanic
      Syndrome signal will be given.

      BTW - It has been
      many years since I saw an opportunity where I thought
      a short in ADBE made any sense for anything but
      very short term trades. The last big opportunity for
      this was the big run-up to the 70's on the initial
      Internet mania a few years ago. So I don't make this
      recommendation often or lightly.

      Remember that analysts
      are almost always a lagging indicator - they always
      turn bullish at the tops and bearish at the bottoms.
      If ADBE gets a bunch more upgrades, then we're
      really at a top."

      Who knows, this may come to
      pass. Like life, sometimes it's a crap shoot.

    • I am copying in a Dow Jones story that is out.
      Wild is all I can say. It is not wise to look a gift
      horse in the mouth, but 105??

      DJ Adobe Up On
      Confidence In Reaching Rev, Pft Goals

      By Maria V.
      Georgianis

      NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Adobe Systems Inc.'s (ADBE)
      stock has been firing on all cylinders on

      confidence that the company's products and better
      operational controls will enable it to meet its fiscal

      1999 financial targets.

      Earlier Monday, the
      stock set a record high of 105 1/4, the second record
      in a row, up from Friday's
      99 1/8. Including
      Monday's high, Adobe's shares year-to-date have advanced
      more than 125% from
      their starting level of 46
      3/4.

      Mike Savage, Adobe's director of investor
      relations, said that investors are confident that the

      graphics software company can meet its quarterly and
      yearly goals.

      In addition, investors are
      anticipating the company's imminent release of its
      InDesign
      desktop-publishing software, said Merrill Lynch &
      Co. analyst Jay Vleeschhouwer. The product will

      ship by next week, according to Adobe.


      InDesign will be a "very substantial source of incremental
      revenue next year," Vleeschhouwer said,
      estimating
      that it will contribute in excess of $100 million to
      Adobe's $1.24 billion in fiscal 2000
      revenue.


      In the near-term, Adobe's goals are to increase
      fiscal 1999 revenue by 15% and to boost operating

      margins to 25% of revenue. In fiscal 1998, Adobe reported
      a 2% decline in revenue to $894.8
      million and
      operating margins of 18.4%.

      Prior to the start of
      its third-quarter quiet period Monday, Adobe told
      investors that it was
      comfortable with Wall Street's
      estimates for the third quarter, Savage said.

      The
      company is expected to earn 73 cents per share for the
      quarter ending Sept. 3, according to
      First
      Call/Thomson Financial. In the year-ago period, Adobe reported
      earnings of 37 cents.

      Earlier Monday, SoundView
      Technology Group Inc. analyst Russell Crabs issued a
      positive report
      on the company, Savage said. Crabs
      wasn't immediately available for comment.

      In
      Nasdaq trading, Adobe closed up 6, or 6.1%, at 105, on
      volume of 1.63 million shares compared
      with average
      daily volume of 1.02 million.

      - By Maria V.
      Georgianis; (201) 938-5244; maria.georgianis@dowjones.com

    • Wow - truely surprised to see this over 100 - congrats longs!

    • Hold your ADBE stock. It will be one of this year's best performers. Even on low volume it has strength. Look for a split shortly which should further fuel a rise.

      StellarLight

    • Here's one possible answer:

      ADBE short
      interest has been quickly decreasing since May...the AUG
      number must look even uglier. With today being options
      expirations, perhaps the squeeze is on?

      Mon, Interest,
      %decrease from prior
      MAY, 2294104,0
      JUN,
      2184562,-5
      JUL, 1460350,-33

    • Anyone noticed that ADBE volume was 2.5x normal
      yesterday. Looks like were headed for another 2MM day today.
      All this when overall market volume is DOWN 20%! Not
      to mention that we continue to hit news 52-week
      highs while the overall market corrects.

      I
      suspect something big is up and there has been some
      leakage of the news.

    • At this point Adobe is trading at 33 p/e =
      94/2.84 on the average earning estimates, but
      theoretically it should be trading at least 30 p/e (according
      to its growth rate 15%). So there is not much gap in
      the p/es, given that the earnings will be out Sept.
      16th. I think shorting Adobe at this point is not a
      good idea because, first Adobe could very well beat
      the estimates by a good margin (plus there is chance
      to split) and news releases for the new products are
      expected soon(any day).

      Questions to all.
      Have
      we seen the bottom of market for 99 or will it
      continue to slide down for the rest of the
      year?
      Interest rates will definitely go up since cpi was not
      that promising?
      Where we would go from here? TJ,
      Aki, anyone�(need detailed analysis)?
      Rgds,
      -sxm

    • Comparing to other software co.s, ADBE is in
      upper range of valuations. It's run up a lot the past
      week, and from a trading viewpoint is becoming a short
      candidate (based strictly on overall market starting to
      sell off)

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ADBE
82.03+0.63(+0.77%)12:04 PMEDT