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The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc Message Board

  • bigpaw2000 bigpaw2000 Nov 22, 2008 6:07 PM Flag

    Not going to get the big pop you think

    After owning the NW-PC shares for years I converted to the RBS-PT class because of a really large yield discrepency early this year. My family currently owns close to 20,000 shares. Although I am happy to see the dividend announcement, this may be the last one offered as we close in on RBS nationalisation.

    Want evidence? Look at AEH that is a preferred of Aegon Insurance. At least currently they appear to be in better shape than RBS. They just announced business as usual preferred dividends and they are still yielding over 20%.

    We can thank the US govt for wiping out the FNM and FRE preferreds that have basically removed them from being a valuable asset class for the near future.

    I think we will get a 10% pop or so, but nothing like the 100-150% everyone seems to think. Once RBS nationalisation occurs, and we are 50%+ there, I believe preferreds and common get wiped out.

    If we do get the giant pop, can guarantee our shares are at the front of the list to sell.

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    • I would like to point out that the "Big Pop" as started. In the last 5 trading days (Nov 21st through Nov 28th) RBS Preferred stocks have increased an average of 56%.

      I still content that these stock as a group will increase another 40% by year end (including the dividend payable at year end)

      The preferreds are still great value. Buying and holding now you can lock-in a 17% yield while your investiment increases 40%.

      Good luck

    • The british gov't is underwriting new preferreds. They are not going to do that and then wipe them out. They would lose all credibility and destroy public confidence... and this crisis is very much about a lack of confidence.

      Whether this pops or not is questionable as this market is being dictated by fear -- but the Gov't is not going to rope people in and then cut them off at the knees.

      Just my opinion.

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