Adding to my last post, and responding to the latest of Chirag, I think that the analysts who are "in" do understand the relationship between one study and another (especially Crohn's and UC which are the most similar of the diseases), which is why they are saying stuff like "PT of 17 for Crohn's alone". In other words, even if they fully weigh the chances that TSO is a "holy grail" for AU diseases, they can't give an $8 stock a $50-$100 price target (at least without being ridiculed and/or being called insane.).
But the fact is that there are over 100 autoimmune diseases and TSO could be therapeutic for a great many of them. In 2001 the director of the NIAID estimated that the ANNUAL cost for treatment of auto-immune diseases was over 100 BILLION DOLLARS per year. This was actually thought to be a gross underestimation since 7 of those 100 Auto-immune diseases account for approx 50 to 70 BILLION PER YEAR in treatment costs. What are those 7 AI diseases? Well here are 5 of them: Crohn's, UC, Multiple Sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, and psoriasis. Now look and see what diseases CNDO is testing TSO on. Starting to get the picture? Add to that the safety profile which cross your fingers compared to synthetic immuno-supressants is so good right now its sick, and here is something to gamble on. Now weigh the chances that the Crohn's results are hugely good, which is a decent possibility, and then you are going to have a lot of smart people extrapolating that this may in fact work for many AU diseases, and assessing value based on that possibility/probability. Right now they can't do that (although Roth came close) without being called crazy, and some of them already have been called crazy (but only by the uninformed).
Holy grail? Nay, not yet. TSO, by all means, is not of human. It's not good for allergy herapy, at least from early preliminary results. We will find chemicals in those human parasites and intestine bacteria that can balance our immune system. TSO is our starting point.
Stocklooking- I appreciate the information. Let's be clear though-I did not say TSO WAS a "holy grail" for AI diseases. The jury is out but there certainly is a possibility it COULD BE. If your definition of "holy grail" is that TSO has to cure EVERY SINGLE auto-immune disorder, then I agree with you that it will not do that, and neither will any other drug or biologic known to mankind. You are CORRECT that a study of TSO for allergic rhinitis showed a lack of efficacy (if i recall, this was a Danish study). However, there are other allergies and 100 plus auto-immune disorders. To the extent I understand the rest of your post re human vs. non-human parasite, I tend to disagree with that part. One of the BENEFITS of TSO is that humans are NOT natural hosts. As such, we can rid our bodies of it at any time (simply by not ingesting more since it cannot live with us more than a couple of weeks), we cannot transmit it amongst each other (that would be a deal breaker for the FDA), etc etc, and still get (hopefully) all of the benefits that the human immune system had gotten from evolving with parasites for millions of years (before becoming overly hygienic). Lastly, to the extent you infer that we might further study TSO and find treatment from something less than the full parasite, I again agree with you and CNDO is already studying that (i could be wrong but i think they recently entered a partnership re such research). BUT, to say that TSO is just a "starting point" is way off. The safety profile for TSO as a whole biologic compared to what is on the market is terrific. Among other side effects current drugs suppress your immune system making you susceptible to an array of other illnesses. If TSO proves to be AS EFFICACIOUS as other drugs, the safety profile AS A WHOLE BIOLOGIC is already far superior. This could be on the market sooner rather than later.