It looks like HIMX found a new support level at 6.50 on Thursday as we bounced off the low. Friday was an up day with volume of 2.1mm shares. The charts indicate that HIMX is below trading below its 10 day moving average which is good news since it created a support level and it was a 20% pullback from the 52 week high. The fact that we bounced off it and not drop indicates that we have found the new support for HIMX & the only place to move is higher. As for the 25mm share offering it will not have an effect on the price since it was already built in to the stock price. I think HIMX will announce a dividend this week of 14 cents a shares plus a new quartly dividend of 6 cents a share. This will be enough to get the mutual funds that invest in dividend growing stocks to buy the stock and it will also be #$%$ign to analyst that HIMX is now moving into the big boys territory. 47% of the stock is held by insiders & this offering will create the ability for hedge funds, mutual fund & institutional investors to get in on the stock. It will create greater liquidity. It will also create an opportunity for shorts get in on the stock, but twith the rosy outlook that the company has provided the street, it would suicide for these guys to short it. They will have their #$%$ handed to them in a sling-shot. For the year I'm looking at 60 cents (.08 1q, .14 2q, .17 3q, .21 4q) earnings with 1.32 for 2014 (.22 1q, .29 2q, 37 3q, .44 4q). The current PE is above 20 which is low for this stock. The PE should be 30. but even with 20 at 2014 the stock should be at 26.40. That's almost $20.00 more than where the stock is trading now. Enjoy the ride higher. Do your own research
You are almost 50% higher in estimated earnings for 2013 (range is $0.41 to $0.44 with $0.42 being the average) and more than 100% higher for 2014 (range is $0.56 to $0.73 with $0.61 being the average).
What revenue are you modeling as compared to the Analysts? The four analysts reporting on Yahoo's page are estimating $841.2 to $881.5 million in 2013 and $1.0 to $1.17 billion for 2014.
Most likely you are modeling signficantly higher revenue and margins. What are you seeing/modeling that the analysts are not. I do think the analysts are lower but I am closer to $0.45 in 2013 and $0.66 in 2014 although my model is not very sophisticated.
And, whatever P/E we are given, the share price has to rise with the growth rate of the P/E declines. I would prefer something about 22 or so this year expanding to 25+ next year due to the 50% growth rate and dividend payment.
There is one part of the business that is growing fast is the automotive part of the business. If they can Kia, Hynduai, Subaru to use their technology in their autos it will be major growth potential. HIMX has the technology to rear view camera & on board dash cam that some car companies are currently using. I believe they will get into at least six major car companies by 2014 that will be a major boast to earnings that other analyst are leaving out. That's what I see as a big driver (no pun intended) going forward for this company. do your own research. Remember HIMX is not just screen displays but rather a company that has & pending over 3000 patents. Enjoy the nice ride
I do enjoy your logic with the support at 6.50 theory, however, with the shelf offering going through and with the stock in an emerging down trend. I feel as if you will see more red than green in the immediate future. I am taking a break from buying this stock right now. that doesn't that i don't think it will rise again, but it might be smarter to just hold your position for now.
Do you have any idea of the drivers for HIMX stock at this time? Did you not read the message board that:
- HIMX will probably announce a dividend this week - bullish and starts some short covering
- HIMX is shipping drivers to Samsung for their phones of all levels - bullish
- HIMX supposedly has an activist shareholder who may be able to unlock some value
- HIMX has no current plans for the shelf offering and will disclose any plans at a later date (and expect this to be fully questioned and discussed at the next conference call). But, other than a short term impact on price as the shelf is done (perhaps in a private placement), this should be considered bullish as it would be for business expansion.
The shelf offering will only be done to pursue an awesome business opportunity which HIMX chooses to pursue. They aren't selling these shares for cash for current operations as they have plenty of cash (have $11.6 million left from share buyback, pay a dividend of their choosing which was only $0.06/share last year).
The only bearish issue is Innolux selling their shares and those are existing shares. They could cause some price weakness but only if dumped quickly on the market.............which doesn't help Innolux at all.
So, lay out your bearish case here for disclosure and debate.