I am curious about what others expect to see until November. My current expectation is that $7 is going to be the hard ceiling unless the rumor about XBox goggles is confirmed to be true or Google makes updates about its partnership with HIMX. If there is nothing on XBox goggles or Google partnership, we may see some attempts to break though $7 but may not be able to hold until November. What is your thought?
First, it really doesn't matter to the long term investor what happens between now and November. It only really matters to those wanting to buy and sell. Long term investors should be thinking of at least Feb 2015 when HIMX reports $0.63 (currrent) to over $1.15 (high end projections) for FY 2014 and then an outlook for 1Q 2015.
My take would be that the Market Makers will continue to accumulate shares for the institutiions and thus keep the price somwhat range bound. I will be watching but I don't expect to see any increase in the number of shares short as that is just a stupid crazy thing to do with HIMX and its very low P/E vs. growth prospects.
The drivers for HIMX share price going higher would be news driven at this point...........and most likely the news will not be coming from HIMX but from HIMX customers such as:
- Google announcing dates for Google Glasses
- Sony and/or Microsoft announcing Augmented Reality Glasses for Gaming Systems (maybe by mid-October for Chiristmas)
- Tear down reports showing HIMX is in new iPhone and other Smartphones
- Product annuncements on iWatches from Apple (via HIMX customer Foxconn) or Samsung
- Auto manufacturer toutnig Heads Up Displays (perhaps BMW/MB or Tesla or hybrid???)
The only news I might expect from HIMX would be a further recipt of funds from Google for the additional 8.5% of Himax Displays but have no idea when this might occur.
But, there is no reason to think HIMX will not double at be $12 by Feb 2015............and we should get at least another $0.25 in July 2014.
Really we are looking at a very unpredictable situation. I was surprised the market took Himax's q2 so negatively but given the market situation, it was a little bit of the perfect storm. (I expected that Himax was going to give more details about their other LCOS projects which would have been the catalyst e.g. PS4, XBOX iPhone/iwatch.) Having said that, Himax has already reported that their LCOS production facility has been built and capable of mass production. The reality is Himax, anyone of their big clients yet to be specifically named could and probably will make an announcement at anytime. The holiday season is going to be the target for many of these products so as the weeks pass I expect very unexpected jumps up in their PPS. I'm quite confident we will hear news before the Himax financial report though.
Thank you for your insight, I started this topic not because I am short but because I am curious about others' take on the current situation with the hope that potential investors may find useful information in deciding what is the best time to invest.
Of the potential news you mentioned that may affect HIMX, I would like to add the possible QE tapering in September. While not directly related to HIMX, I suspect the fear of tapering may cause panic sell like what happened on Aug. 5 and create a window to buy before the possible Sony/Microsoft announcements in October. However, if the Fed could calm the market then we may ride with the market for a rebound.