It will hit $20 by end of January and will gradually go up to $50 by year end. All this provided the below catalyst takes place:-
1. Google buy remaining stake in HIMX Display
2. Google launch GG in 1Q and reports huge sales
3. HIMX lands deal with BIDU
4.HIMX lands deal with Microsoft
5. Any other deal with other big companies.
6. Revenue and EPS grow at double digit and hit $1 by year end.
Obviously there will be profit taking in the range of 5-10% along the way but if you're long just hang on to be rewarded. Wishing all longs good luck and have a great 2014!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thanks for listing your assumptions. I think many of these have a good chance of happening with perhaps an exception on #6 as I think getting to $1 EPS may be difficult in 2014 but certainly not in 2015.
Taking yours one by one and these are just my thoughts which are no more valid than yours:
1. HIMX only needs Google to buy in for their additonal 8.5% is if they need more than 2 million LCoS displays per month. The market will love the news but it is still revenue and earnings which will determine share price in the long run.
2. I think Google is ready to announce but I am thinking perhaps March which is at the end of 1Q.....but that means HIMX is selling to them by Feb if not earlier. himx2013 showed news of a HIMX job fair so the ramp up will start. And, Google will need to make lots of Glasses just for inventory and shelf stock.
3. I can see HIMX landing a deal with BIDU but the timing of those Glasses could be in the 2nd half of 2014 although this is a complete guess on my part. But, we know Google has been testing for over 6 months and BIDU has not started an Explorer program yet.
4. Very high likelihood of HMX already having this wiith Microsoft who is a current customer and himx2013 articles seem to indicate HIMX is their supplier
5. Deal with other large companies is nearly a given as HIMX Mgmt says they are working with multiply companies which could include Sony, Oculus, Mercedes, Nissan, etc.
6. Revenue and earnings should grow very nicely. EPS could nearly double......but I don't think they hit $1 although they will be at this pace by 3Q or 4Q meaning we get this in 2015
Thanks again for a well considered list as lists are good for grounding the discussion in real assumptions.
Zacks gives it almost $14 and they rate it a #3 HOLD with a neutral long term. ZACKS rates HIMX as the highest risk stock and so does TD AMERITRADE. which will not fully margin it, you have to pay 70% cash to buy the stock and it's been that way since I got into it over a year ago. I love the stock but that fact that you can't fully margin it puts a limit on how much money you want to tie up on one stock.
Zacks did not attend the various HIMX Investor's Conferences or had one on one meetings with HIMX management.
Why would you listen to Zacks on HIMX? Do you take investment advice from a company who only generates computer reports and doesn't attend these meetings?