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Himax Technologies, Inc. (HIMX) Message Board

  • bull_forever_2000 bull_forever_2000 Jan 1, 2014 1:44 PM Flag

    What should we do from here if you are holding from $1

    I started accumulating HIMX for last 3-4 years because it was a dividend play and I liked that. I accumulated over 10K at average price of $3 or so. I have been selling at $4, $7, $10, $13, $14 but still hold over 8K in stocks. I am wondering if anyone can give some advise on when I should consider exiting the position. At this point, I personally feel valuation is going beyond what I expected (I prefer AMD over HIMX on valuation) but I can see the potential of HIMX applied to many wearable computing. That is why I am still holding but would like to know long term shareholders like me on what they are thinking at this point. Thanks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • I continue to hold my entire Long position. I am very excited about LCoS and its rollout... we could be going much higher over the months and years to come. Whenever you have a big gain, it's difficult to know what to do. If the gain is potentially life-changing, you may consider selling out to enjoy the benefits regardless of where the price may go next. Here are some ideas (some already mentioned)

      -- Sell a portion to cover you initial investment and a substantial gain and let the rest ride
      -- Sell near term OTM covered calls against some or all shares, esp. while HIMX is at the top of its trade channel, option time premiums deteriorate the fastest during the last 2 mos of their lives (which is a +++ for options sellers)
      -- Sell some or all of your main holdings to take the gains, and then purchase some long term options to "stay in the game" at a significantly lower cost.... maybe 2015 LEAPS (2016s may open up soon as well).
      -- Keep your position long position open and consider a no-cost options collar (look up Costless Collar) or some low cost variation of this to provide an "insurance policy" (and gain cap) on your longs if you are afraid the price may experience a drastic correction.

      I personally believe LCoS is going to be a significant influence in our lives over the next few years, whether it be via GG (or the nth generation of GG) or any number of other applications/usages. With a very solid fundamental/core business and a strong foothold in this new tech which many companies appear to be working hard to be a frontrunner in, I see HIMX as a fantastic place to keep my money invested for now.

      I owned MVL when they first reintroduced Spiderman... If I would have sold out after a 400% gain, I would have missed and additional 1000%+ gain and the eventual buyout from DIS. I personally buy and sell based on the fundamentals, mgmt quality and the potential of a company (not on my % gain)... and I continue to like all of these items for HIMX.

    • Will me the rest of your shares.

    • I have similar issue : in at 2 but given the hype with Google glass this is likely to continue at least until people know whether glass will be a flop or not

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Keep holding on for dear life! No but, really I say cash out a portion to cover initial investment, then HOLD BABY

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Hey bull_forever_2000,

      There are many reasons to sell so the criteria may change with each reason to sell.

      But, if your question is about selling for maximum profit, you have seen how hard that is as you "been selling at $4, $7, $10, $13, $14 ".

      They thought I would leave with you applies to buying at the bottom as well as selling at the top. Only the lucky do this and generally only once. So, recognize that selling at the peak or buying at the bottom is near impossible. Target 10% to 15% off the peak or the bottom.

      And, the only way you can see this peak or bottom is after it happens. So, let the shares run and only sell after you have seen the peak and the shares are starting to decline outside of the normal range. You can see this on a chart with a 50 day and 200 day moving average (DMA).

      The two things you look for are:

      - The 50 DMA turing down to decline
      - The 50 DMA dropping below the 200 DMA

      For bulls trying to time a buy, the 'Golden Cross' is when a inclining 50 DMA crosses above the 200 DMA. Look at several charts and you will see that this is a good, longer term indicator.

      Note that you can also let a stock rise and set a (mental or physical) trailing sell stop so you can ride the share price up but sell out when it declines. Wth stocks like HIMX, a mental sell stop works best as one set with a broker can be hit by the Market Maker who 'induces volatility' as we have seen.

      Finally, if you want to sell your shares for as much as possibly, when the time comes, you can usually make more money by selling calls for a month or two out and let yor shares get called.

    • If you got your initial investment plus a bit. Play with he house shares for free. Pretty easy decision if what you say is true. GL

    • Congrats on your great buy at $1....I would advise you to make your own decision on your sell price, no one knows for sure where this train is headed....

      I have sold before much too early and much too late, but I have only myself to blame--all I can tell you is you try to learn from your of luck dude, and go HIMX!!!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Hi Bull,

      Nice work in identifying HIMX over 3 years ago, I realize it was for different reasons than the most recent catapults (Glass, Oculus Rift, everything wearable that is coming out from other companies, etc), but still, good intuition to get in, and still keep the 8k share position.

      I personally started a bit later, and accumulated between $5.15 and $7.10, for an avg around $6.40. Haven't sold a share yet, but am starting to raise similar questions for myself, ie. when should I start to think about getting out?. My present plant is to wait for the Glass to take off at the end of 2014, and the perhaps start selling covered calls around early 2015, when wouldn't be upset if I get executed on the calls, hopefully around $24 - $28 per share.

      Best of Luck!


      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to dreifromusa
      • @dreifromusa, @xwallstcro, @callseller2003

        Thanks you for all your response.

        I really liked this article.

        I am thinking to sell 10-20% just before the earning.

        I rode SIGM till $70 from $20 but never sold. I am trying to avoid the same mistake here.

        Any other similar stock that one has in radar would be great.

        I like AMD and SIGM at this level with a potential to double in 2014. I am slowly exiting my position in BX as like HIMX I am with BX for long time. I also sold off my LSI holding after its take over.

        In 2009 I lost 70% of my stock value. Hence, I think I need more cash with market going so high although 2014 looks good from this point onwards.

        Happy 2014.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I accumulated 250,000s between $2-3.......I have not sold a share of yet.......common sense told me that this stock was going to have strong mometum going into year end because tax selling was not a factor....Now the conventional wisdom is that taking profits will take over.....That may happen and if so maybe a small correction ....but my short-term targets are still intact
      3 months 15-20
      year end 20-30
      Remember this is going to be a household name....that alone is worth $5 a share pop this year

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • buy all the kleenex tissues you can with that 8000 dollars cause you will need them.

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