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Anthracite Capital, Inc. Message Board

  • msjmsj2001 msjmsj2001 Jul 17, 2002 8:55 PM Flag

    Crucial Issues

    Late next week AHR will report earnings. No doubt they will also comment on many other aspects of their business. The "upside" versus "downside" of the stock will rest on what these numbers show.

    Also, there is the $70,000m dollar question, that question being the reivestment of the CDO proceeds. Since the bonds put in the CDO were being financed overnite at rates probably in the low to middle 4% range, and the CDO had a net interest cost in the low 7's, what AHR did in terms of "matched term funding to the maturity of their collateral" was also a significant increase in interest expense from financing. This increase in interest expense would/could/should be offset by an increase in interest income for the $70,000 excess proceeds.

    The range of alternatives that this $70,000 can take are HUGE. If they were put in overnight funds they would earn (say) 2%; if there were put in nonleveraged GNMA's they would earn (say) 6%, if they were put in leveraged (8 to 1) GNMA's the funds would have earned 16%, if they were put in leveraged and hedged GNMA's they would have earned X?%; if they were invested in commercial loans they would have earned 12%+, and if these commercial loans were leveraged 1 to 1 the funds would have earned 18%. Which alternative occurred? Has AHR been able to find high yielding and SAFE commercial collateral. Right now only the AHR hairdresser knows, but next weeks earnings will be very revealing.

    And of course, there is the issue of the 10 AHR employees charging what looks like $20 million per year in managemetn fees, did I say $20,000 per year?Yes I sure did, when you consider that our dividends are 42mm shares X's $1.4 = $56 million per year, while the management with NO MONEY INVESTED IN THE BUSINESS is going to charge us $20mm per year or $20/56 which is 35% of dividends paid, you can see that this is rip off corporate greed BEYOND IMAGINATION. Check BLK compensation, Fink et al $10mm per year; where does that money come from, that's right, straight from AHR and other places.

    Is this bearish for the stock? In my opinion no. Why? Because it is so unbelievably egregious that either 1) it is coming down big time, or 2) we shareholders are going to find an alternative manager and supplant BLK through the proxy process.

    However, if AHR charges $5mm in quarterly management fees, up $2.5mm per year from last 2Q 2001, while they have ALREADY LEFT THE 2Q dividend the same, and this $2.5mm represents about .06 per share, then we will have demonstrable evidence that AHR is all for themselves and F___ the shareholders. If this occurs, and I predict it will (because frater and shea MUST FEED THE MASTER, OR ELSE HOW CAN FINK ET AL MAKE $10MM PER YEAR IN CASH) it is going to set off a firestorm of protest activity.

    If we became a self managed reit $10mm+ of these fees would go straight back to shareholders in the form of a .25 per year dividend increase thus our dividend would go from $1.40 to $1.65. The war is about to begin folks, and it will be very bullish for the stock.

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    • we haven't hear from the Asian mob or many of his other crazy names in awhile .......

      remember this harvey gem a few weeks ago...

      Baby AHR Must Fall @ 9.45
      by: SeLL_VoLuMe (37/M/San Jose, Costa Rica)
      Long-Term Sentiment: Sell 07/24/02 09:44 am
      Msg: 9173 of 9725

      Massive Liquidation may continue. Can you afford more losses? Time to help the shorts.

      :43:40 AM Trade 9.85 200 NYSE
      9:43:38 AM Trade 9.85 6000 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 1000 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 1000 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 2300 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 500 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 200 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 1000 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 300 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 5000 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 700 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 300 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 1100 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 700 NYSE




      SLV

      ***********************************************

      yup , but he is still thumping the drum he's right at 20% higher on AHR .................

      silly harvey .

    • More truth than fiction. Thanks for the laugh.

    • mrs_gutternberg_not_married mrs_gutternberg_not_married Jul 24, 2002 10:11 AM Flag

      Time to talk about dividend & Yield losses
      Don�t be married to the Stock.

      AHR 9.50 down 0.51 Bid 9.40 9.51

      Volume 145,000

      Mrs. Gutternberg (not married)

    • -- "We buy growth at a reasonable price": We're holding our noses and paying up for some pretty expensive stocks.

      -- "We're long-term investors": The stock tanked, but we are hanging on, hoping to break even.

      -- "We think the stock is a potential buyout candidate": I sure hope some corporate raider is reading this.

      -- "The stock's oversold": We never imagined the shares could fall this far.

      -- "Nobody ever went broke taking profits": We bought the stock at $16, sold it at $32, and two weeks later it hit $114.

      -- "The company's quarterly earnings beat expectations": The chief financial officer sandbagged analysts.

      -- "We've researched this company thoroughly": Here's what we heard from the company's vice president of investor relations.

      -- "We're fundamental investors": We listen to the chief executive's sales pitch.

      -- "We're technical investors": We skip the sales pitch and pull out the Ouija board.

      -- "We buy companies, not pieces of paper": I majored in philosophy.

      -- "Our strength is evaluating corporate management": We play a lot of golf.

      -- "The company has solid fundamentals": It is a shame the shares are so absurdly overvalued.

      -- "It's a New Economy stock": Don't even bother asking about earnings.

      -- "We rate the stock a strong buy": We need the company's investment-banking business.

      -- "We consider the stock attractive long-term": The next year is going to be rough.

      -- "We rate the stock a hold": For goodness sake, dump your shares.

      -- "We rate it a sell": I'm hoping to get the early-retirement package.

      Sincerely,

      Shirley

    • Don't Take Wall Street at Its Words

      Wall Street Journal; New York, N.Y.; Nov 14, 2000; By Jonathan Clements;

      WALL STREETERS TALK A good game. The real challenge, however, is figuring out what they are saying.

      Below are 33 phrases often heard on Wall Street -- and how you might interpret them. The list was compiled with help from investment advisers William Bernstein, Eleanor Blayney, Harold Evensky, Deena Katz, Ross Levin, Gerald Perritt and Larry Swedroe. I also got a hand from Journal colleagues Greg Ip and William Power.

      But my biggest debts are to Kevin Bernzott, an investment adviser in Camarillo, Calif., and John Rekenthaler, research director at Chicago's Morningstar Inc., both of whom shipped me e-mails filled with hilarious examples.

      -- "It's a dead-cat bounce": Believe me, there is no justification for this rally.

      -- "The market is in a narrow trading range": Prices aren't jumping around as much as usual, and nobody can figure out why.

      -- "Bonds retreated on bearish comments from the Fed": Once again, nobody understood what Alan Greenspan said. But why else could bonds have fallen?

      -- "We're near-term cautious but long-term optimistic": Don't blame us if the market tanks.

      -- "The stock market was down on technical factors": We have no idea why shares fell.

      -- "The market fell on heavy selling by mutual funds": We still have no idea why the market fell. But everybody knows small investors are stupid, right?

      -- "The trend is your friend": Stocks have been going up.

      -- "Trees don't grow to the sky": Stocks stopped going up.

      -- "The market is looking a little extended": We're dumping everything.

      -- "Don't miss this compelling opportunity": I need the commission.

      -- "The market climbs a wall of worry": Sure, it is tough to be blase about rising oil prices, climbing interest rates and Middle East tensions. But I really, really need the commission.

      -- "It isn't a loss until you sell it": You took a bath in the stock, but let's ignore it, and maybe it will go away.

      -- "Focus on total return": Please, please, please don't notice the fund's outrageously high expenses.

      -- "It's cheap on a relative basis": It is pretty darn expensive, but other folks own stuff that is even more ridiculously priced.

      -- "It's fairly valued": If the stock climbs a few more bucks, we're unloading this puppy.

      -- "We've got some great values in our portfolio": Our stocks have been massacred.

    • Volume is good today, we need 1,000,000 or more for liquidation.

      Faith

    • Volume is good today

    • ANTHRACITE CAPITAL - New York Stock Exchange: AHR


      Rec. Time Action Price Volume Exch.
      9:49:15 AM Ask 9.66 1000 NYSE
      9:48:55 AM Ask 9.67 700 NYSE
      9:48:48 AM Trade 9.66 500 NYSE
      9:48:38 AM Trade 9.66 500 NYSE
      9:48:34 AM Ask 9.67 800 NYSE
      9:48:26 AM Ask 9.67 700 NYSE
      9:48:23 AM Ask 9.67 800 NYSE
      9:48:23 AM Bid 9.65 1000 NYSE
      9:48:22 AM Trade 9.67 500 NYSE
      9:48:19 AM Trade (at Bid) 9.66 3000 NYSE

    • Sorry for the error @ 9.45 should be 9.85

      http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=TTN,uu[l,a]dacayiay[pb50!b200!f][vc6
      0][iUb14!Lw14]&pref=G


      ANTHRACITE CAPITAL - New York Stock Exchange: AHR


      Rec. Time Action Price Volume Exch.
      9:45:29 AM Ask 9.8 2500 CHI
      9:44:20 AM Bid 9.76 100 NYSE
      9:44:15 AM Trade (at Bid) 9.76 300 NYSE
      9:44:15 AM Ask 9.8 2000 CHI
      9:44:12 AM Bid 9.76 300 NYSE
      9:43:52 AM Ask 9.84 400 NYSE
      9:43:46 AM Trade 9.85 1000 NYSE

    • Massive Liquidation may continue. Can you afford more losses? Time to help the shorts.

      :43:40 AM Trade 9.85 200 NYSE
      9:43:38 AM Trade 9.85 6000 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 1000 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 1000 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 2300 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 500 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 200 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 1000 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 300 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 5000 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 700 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 300 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 1100 NYSE
      9:43:37 AM Trade 9.85 700 NYSE




      SLV

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