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Anthracite Capital, Inc. Message Board

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  • jamookey jamookey Dec 9, 2002 12:15 PM Flag

    This stock is going up

    these messages must take quite a bit of your time.we should consider ourselve lucky that someone like you are so concerned for our feduciary well being.remember it's depends on if you think the glass is half full,or half the economy in sorry shape? absolutely,will it get better?absolutely.

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    • Jamookey>it depends on if you think the glass is half full, or half empty. Is the economy in sorry shape? Absolutely, will it get better? Absolutely.

      Last chance to bail out, it was a bear market rally and like other similar rallies it will exhaust soon.
      The reasons for such conclusion are as follow:

      1. The market psychology tells us that in a bear market rally, every rally is treated as bottom.
      2. What do you think is the impact of UAL bankruptcy?

      Here's another clue: Enron -- bet you haven't heard that name lately. Even though the biggest corporate debacle in American history has been delisted, and the company's own management says its shares "have no value," between two and eight million shares change hands everyday now.

      3. How will deflation impact consumers?
      4. Japan, Germany and entire Latin American economies are in a recession.
      5. Who and why invest in USA now or in year 2003.

      California has descended into its worst budget crisis in a decade and is now facing an excruciating round of budget cuts and possible tax increases. State officials are proposing deep reductions in education, health services and other programs to deal with a budget shortfall that could total $25 billion in the next 18 months.

      And New York City workers are ready for a strike; they need higher salary and bounces. Where will it end?

      6. How can War boost the economy?
      7. Is the he loss of $7 trillion enough?
      8. Market is down for three years (2000, 2001, & 2002).

      The last time stocks fell for three years in a row was between 1939 and 1941, a period that turned out to be the final phase of a secular bear market that started in 1929.

      9. Where will the money come for Pension liabilities
      10. Last �Finally, there is little evidence that Main Street has abandoned Wall Street.

      Since 1896, the S&P 500 has fallen for four consecutive years on only one occasion. That period was between 1929 and 1932, when the index dropped by 70% on a calendar-year basis, but by almost 90% when measured from top to bottom.

      Of course, the similarities to the current environment are at least a little scary.

      The current situation isn't that grim. But nowhere is it written that just because stocks have dropped for three years in a row, the next year has to end happily.

      Markets take orders from no one, and no one's calendar. It is time stay out of this market, unless you a short term trader. The market at the bottom will give ample opportunities. The question is who is going to have money?

      H. H. Wu