Ok. So, there is a little risk involved with this stock.
However, the odds are like this.
Full and Swift Recovery -> $9.00 per share (10% chance) -- This outcome is based on a reversal of the reserves for loan losses and full recognition of tangible book value in the stock price.
Slow Recovery and Dilution of Shares -> $3.15 per share (80% chance) -- This outcome is based on all reserves for loan losses being fully recognized and shares being diluted from 80 million to 160 million total outstanding.
Bankruptcy -> $0 (10% chance) -- The economy would need to sink into a great depression and we would have several quarters of negative cash flow and GAAP earnings.