24% increase in nonperforming loans and dapital adequacy falling to 3.4% from nearly 7%.
That is close to failure in the FDIC terms.
Not much life left in this one, sadly to say.
I usually equate cap rates with the expected unlevered rate of return based on the current market environment for the NOI anyway.
Realized rate of return would be after debt service (net cash flow).
BTW cash flows are decreasing not only because of restructured leases but more so because of vacancy. You can only have so maaany Teriyaki, Pizza, and Sub joints in an area.
Tenants leaving is another story. THE FRANCHISOR SCAM. All these franchisee loans backed by the SBA defaulting at 30-40% rates. As a taxpayer you should livid! Franchisor is paid via a loan received by the franchisee from a bank backed by the SBA. Banks are the problem too! These loans need to be underwritten as if the bank would be willing to take all risk!
"are looking at 20 - 30 percent declines in value and cash flows are declining as renants take advantage of a rentors market"
Now isn't that an oxymoron? Value and cash flow are supposed to go hand in hand. An asset's value is usually based on the cash flow it presents times a certain multiple. In real estate it's divided by an expected rate of return based on the market.
Commercial real estate values are down because of a decline in cash flow. What is the property worth now with current cash flow and how much can I borrow and still cover the debt service without defaulting on my loan covenants.
Residential real estate is more dependent on jobs, supply, and musical chairs.
Read the writing's of Bond guru Bill Gross. He says we have relied to much on asset appreciation spurned by increased leverage than by GDP or cash flow.
Having sold FTBK in early 07, shortly after the old man retired and the 3-2 split, reading these msg boards makes me very happy.....but not for the bank employees or investors. The writing was on the wall folks, even 2 1/2 years ago.
Yep, I live in Snohomish County. The big issue for them is commercial realty is just starting to really go down.
Deals done in 2006 & 2007 are looking at 20 - 30 percent declines in value and cash flows are declining as renants take advantage of a rentors market.