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TFS Financial Corp Message Board

  • tryingtogetthefacts tryingtogetthefacts Jun 9, 2009 7:53 AM Flag


    Can somebody please tell me how to value this stock. BV=$5.60 and EPS=.07 but I know there must be more to it than that. This is a first rate bank that is very solvent.

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    • TFSL is a mutual-holding company with 27.1% of its shares in public hands and 72.9% still belonging to the mutual. For purposes of comparing its BV to market value, a fully-converted calculation is needed, i.e., as though the bank were 100% in public hands. At its current price of $11.10/ share, TFSL is selling at approx. 88% of BV, using a standard full-conversion calculation method.
      - This is a low market price for a bank with $10.9 billion in assets, albeit a bank with its main operations in two troubled real estate markets: Ohio and Florida.

      The published EPS is of course calculated over all outstanding shares, public and mutually owned. The view I take of its EPS is how much can be used to pay dividends to its public shareholders (the mutual has waived its rights to receiving a dividend on its shares). For the past six months TFSL has earned .06 per share. Since dividends are due only on 27.1% of the shares, it could pay dividends of 0.22 per public share, or an average of 0.11 per quarter (based on the six months). TFSL's policy is to pay .07 per public share per quarter, so it has not been stretched to pay the dividend to the public shareholders.

      Keep in mind that TFSL is overcapitalized with 16.4% capital as a percent of assets. It can continue with the stock repurchases, making more dividend money available to the remaining public shareholders, and can continue with its .07 quarterly dividend.

      I am encouraged that TFSL is providing additional funds to its loan loss allowance ($38 million last quarter) and has increased its loan loss allowance from $43.8 million (3/2008) to $59.7 million (3/2009). I imagine that TFSL will have to continue to set aside substantial additional provisions for loan losses going forward, but am reasonably confident that it can weather this storm.

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