Chuck, you haven't been doing this long. I have been doing this for years. I am right at least 75% the time. Add that to the fact that when I'm wrong I get out FAST, and that's all I need to do well.
Cut losses short, let winners run, have an idea of the "true value" of a stock, and try to get information that the public doesn't know yet. That is how you make money in stocks.
mothra P.S. I made money today, with the big drops in AAPL and GOOG more than making up for my longs in MAPP and MNTA. The WHOLE REASON I sold some MAPP stock, as I said when I posted the trade, was because I was moving to a net short position on THE MARKET. Today, that paid off, since I have more exposure to shorts than longs.