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Nuance Communications, Inc. Message Board

  • nashno nashno Feb 16, 2007 1:50 PM Flag

    Technical Triangle Formation

    NUAN has been showing signs of forming a TRIANGLE pattern on the 20 min. chart. Breakouts sometimes result from this type of formation. Looking better as I type

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    • thank you. Your tone is refreshing for a message board.

      I too have been in and out of this this year.

      I have a position I hold and a position I trade.

      Did very well with trading Nuance, got hurt a little when i strayed away dabbling with others. Still doing OK and I learned it is best to stick with what you know.

      Stiil feel there is more upside in this.

      Recently started buying call options as another way to act on what I know/project for NUAN short/medium term and that has been going well.

      Again thanks for the Tone / attitude and Good Luck in the Chaos Theory that drives the Market.

    • You're right - not to trade based on message boards.
      I was pointing out the irony of the mania I was seeing on the board: that even if you're a chart-reader type of person, you can draw different conclusions from the same chart.

      I actually did sell, not only because of the message board, but I think the price is too high. Forward PE is in the upper 20's, which is above my comfort level.

      I think that the reason it's going up right now is result of the following:
      * nuan is a damn good company
      * some big invester bought a lot this morning, which was a minor catalyst
      * a lot of late-comers are discovering this stock, hoping it will go up more (message board evidence of that)
      * market is going up today - rising tide lifts all boats

      I've bought and sold Nuan several times over the past year, based on whether it's higher or lower than what I feel it's worth. It's not pattern matching as in prior discussion, but I know it isn't long term investing either.

      I will buy when the price drops a couple points, unless some other bargain shows up before that.

      Knowing when to sell is the hardest part of investing, I generally sell before it hits top, but then I sleep at night. However, I must admit owning a number of multi-baggers over the years, and selling most of them way too soon. (they weren't multi-baggers for me.) So your criticism is warranted.

    • My question is, how has your friend validated this elliot wave pattern matching? Key word is validated.

      With pattern matching you can always find something which seems interesting, but the question is how predictive it is, key word being predictive.

      Elliot wave thoery, as I understand it, postulated an underlying pattern to the stock market but with no theoretical basis, so it is for all intensive purposes, just looking for whatever fits the data. This is not a good thing. What you want is something to predict tomorrow's data. This validation is so easily tested in practive, the fact that it has not been proven in this way means that it is equivalent to tarot cards.

      If you friend has gone through this effort and found something, he should be rich by now. that is another validation. If it has not beaten the market by x%, then he might as well have purchased an index fund.

      Trust me, just because he runs billions of computations doesn't mean that the results mean anything.

      It is a mathematical fact that you can approximate just about phenomena by adding enough sin and cos terms together (fourier series). That doesn't make the resultant equation meaningful or predictive.

      In my humble opinion, Elliot Wave is a scam created by someone who wants to run paid seminars or sell books.

    • Me too. There are numerous triangle formations. You can do a Google search and probably find many sources. Buy the way, my analysis isn't formulated around looking for triangles day in and day out. A triangle is just one of thousands of formations and patterns. I have a friend who has studied Elliott Wave Patterms and has performed billions of not trillions of calculations using computers linked through a screnesaver he has developed to run and calculate the probability of certain pattern analysis. Look at this site where Rick Swannell has developed the Refined Elliott Wave Technology. Interesting information.

    • Yes I believe you can get something out of pattern analysis - but not this triangle stuff.

      there people who actually find things in patterns are not looking at a one dimensional price chart.

      And they have high powered computers which can not only find patterns, but validate them over time.

      Anybody on this board who thinks they can recognize patterns is fooling themselves. When you mention 'discrediting' on here, yes that is what I mean to do, but in a good way. there's no way to tell someone that they're looking at something ass-backwards and saying you respect their judgement at the same time - that's just the way it is. If I can save one person from wasting their time and money, I'll have done some good in the world.

      Actually if I heard a good argument for triangles or whatever they're called, I am open minded.

      I'm glad we're keeping this civil.

    • Yes,
      And My Tarot card reader and astrologist said the same.
      How much money have you made looking for triangles? Maybe this would be a good exercise for my kindergardner.

      And to think I always thought the stock gains were driven by earnings growth!

    • Nashno,

      You think Nuance is forming an ascending triangle ?

      also are you follower and do you belive in the CUP & HANDLE formation ?

      GO ~~~

      • 1 Reply to gossft2001
      • I believe it is forming a triangle. On my 20 min chart it hit and reversed at key points on the trendlines that form a triangle. I noticed this last Friday and reported it to the message board. Today's morning dip went to the trendline and reversed through the upper or top declining trendline. Once it pierced the trendline it will move to the next resistance point which I show at $14.72

    • Almost $1,000,000 shares traded at $14.45

    • nashno, i need your opinion on fnix that has mkt cap 3.14, quarterly rev 16.24 and recent quarterly growth 49.6%, i think it is far better than nuan.

      • 3 Replies to alexken313
      • Facts: 1.5 billion shares outstanding, a few years back they had a 40/1 reverse stock split. Which shrunk the outstanding shares to 50 million. Fast-forward: we're back to 1.5 billion shares. Expect another reverse stock split very soon. This companies worthless. $16 million in revenue, but $200 million in debt. Stay with nuance.

      • im not nashano, but ill answer anyway AGAIN.


        who cares about quarterly growth or revs..
        fundamentals are irrelevant when trading penny stocks.
        Play the momo and get out.

        Ive seen penny stocks tank after +1000% rev increases.

        Again i will say this. dont compare a penny stock to Nuan.
        get it through your thick head.

      • im not nashano, but ill answer anyway AGAIN.


        who cares about quarterly growth or revs..
        fundamentals are irrelevant when trading penny stocks.
        Play the momo and get out.

        Ive seen penny stocks tank after +1000% rev increases.

        Again i will say this. dont compare a penny stock to Nuan.
        get it through your thick head.

    • Upside minor resistance $14.49, $14.56, $14.89,

16.25+0.16(+0.99%)Sep 2 3:59 PMEDT