Sun, Sep 21, 2014, 7:41 AM EDT - U.S. Markets closed

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Nuance Communications (NUAN) Message Board

  • scottt28 scottt28 Jan 27, 2009 7:09 AM Flag

    Raise the offer on ZICA Paul

    You will lose the company otherwise.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • One major difference between the Yahoo deal and the Nuance tender offer is that the Yahoo offer was actually at a premium to the stock's long-established value. In terms of the Nuance tender offer, the claimed 25% premium is based on a randomly chosen date which represented an unusually low share value. Indeed, I believe it was at or near the stock's 52 week low. That low share value lasted only a few days. Indeed, the value of Zi soared more than 300% (over 1.23/share) beyond the current tender offer just two months after the cited date. Of course, Zi's value has since come down, but so has every other stock's value given the current market conditions. And, as with all other stock shareholders, Zi shareholders believe that their stock will increase to be more reflective of the company's true value as we move past this economic crisis. The bottom line is that Zi's value has always been, and continues to be, at or above the current tender offer price.

      Another difference is that Microsoft had the market share and the acquisition clearly benefited Yahoo. In this case, Zi controls the market in Asia and Nuance is trying to break into that market. Moreover, Zi has the technology that Nuance needs to complete its business model.

      And, of course, in the case at hand Zi has announced a multitude of major contracts and reported record revenues since the tender offer ... which was not at all the case with Yahoo. Zi is getting stronger and more well positioned as time goes by, whereas Yahoo was already on the decline when that acquisition offer was announced.

      So, from these perspectives, Zi is not in the same vulnerable position as Yahoo was when they were presented with the acquisition offering. While the overall Yahoo history may present an interesting analysis, I believe that the conditions were significantly different so as to nullify its applicability in this particular case.

    • Value or not,, I still remember my TDFX that had great innovation, tech but lacked cash....
      I had the PRIVELEDGE to sell my shares for 17cents when I bought them for $3.50.....
      NVDA simply came along and scooped up the technology for pennies!

    • Certainly hard to know the value of Zi, and as Nuance appears to want it, I hope a deal gets made.

      I do question your including the current price of the stock as no incentive for Zi share holders to tender shares when they get get more on the market. Think if Yahoo had a chance to do it over again, tney would take the deal! I was lucky enough to be on Imclone last year, and the stock traded about the offer price as everyone expected a deal for a bit higher price. However I and many others sold off some position not to take the full brunt of a no deal, and that was Icahn negotiating. Without a deal on the table, the stock goes back down, and no white knight has shown itself so far....that should be some incentive, though based on where stock price has been it is understandable why one would not want to trade at this number depending on how inflated those highs were?

    • Thank you.

    • I can not speak for Scott28, only for my self. And, I can say with absolute certainty that I have been up front and honest from the beginning in stating that I own positions in both Nuance and Zica. If you question that, I invite you to read all of my above posts as they are clearly documented for anyone to read.

      More importantly, I have provided detailed facts and analysis as to why I take the positions that I do as opposed to just making broad, unsubstantiated statements. As outlined above, this includes:

      1) Despite Nuance position that the tender offer represents a 25% premium over Zi's closing price on August 13, that date represented a brief low-point in the stocks value and was approximately six months ago. The world has changed a lot in six months, as I believe we all can agree. One could just as easily say that the tender offer represents a 68% discount over Zi's price on October 15 when Zi reached a 52-week high of 1.23. (Indeed, one could also note that a few years back Zi was trading at over 4.)

      2) Zi has consistely traded at or above the tender offer price since it was disclosed. Thus, there is no reason for Zi shareholders to accept the tender offer when they can get a higher value for their shares on the open market. (Today, for instance, Zi hit 43 cents and closed at 41 cents.)

      3) Zi reported record revenues the last quarter, has consistently stated that it expects to achieve profitability this year, and has announced several lucrative contracts since the last reporting. Zi's dominance in the Asian market ... where growth is occuring ... is undisputed.

      4) Other posters on this board that were present at the recent Nuance shareholder meeting freely admit that Ricci appeared exasperated and surprised that he has not been able to close this deal. To date, Nuance has acquired 3.6% of the outstanding shares of Zi. Nuance needs 66.67% to complete a takeover. The receiver, who has stated he will not tender his shares at this price, controls 37% of Zi's outstanding shares. Clearly, Nuance will need to raise its offer or walk away.

      5) Zi's management has consistently stated that they are in negotiations with others. They would not make such a statement less it were true or it would subject them and the company to shareholder lawsuits and regulatory action.

      6) Nuance has been up front that Zi has technology which is vital to this company's business model. The lawsuit is clearly frivolous and nothing more than a negotiating tactic. Just think about it: if this were not the case, why would Nuance offer to pay even $20 million for something that it believes it rightfully owns?

      7) Institutional investments in Zi are on the rise. Zi's management, and its shareholders, have been resolute about rejecting a 40 cent buyout offer.

      If you want to argue the merits of this tender offer, I am happy to do so. But, let's base the conversation on facts rather than inuendo.

      Personally, I believe in both of these companies, which is why I have holdings in both. However, quite frankly, I believe that Zi will yield a higher positive return in the near future based on one of several scenarios: Nuance raising its offer price, Zi achieving profitability on its own, and/or one of the competitors with whom Zi is negotiating coming in with a higher offer.

      Nuance has great potential for the long run. But, diversifying your investments is the best bet in today's market, and Zi is clearly a shining star in the short term.

    • It's about time that the two Scotts come back over from the zica board and discuss the pending offer from nuan and the arbitrage they are going to make on the deal.

    • loved that one... call him "Hancock".

      Ray Embrey: My basic diagnosis of your fundamental problem is... do you want to hear it?

      Hancock: No.

      Ray Embrey: You're an asshole. I know. I call it like I see it, though. It's not a crime to be an asshole, but it's very counter-productive. Not a crime, but you are an asshole, don't you think?

      I tend to take the straight-forward approach. Some call it candor, some say I lack a certain amount of polish. But you have to admit, you got to the point quickly.

    • Cut the guy some slack... lawyers habitually use such words as "clearly", "frankly", and "henceforth" without thinking. It's in their DNA.

    • Litigation is a scumball tactic. You would expect more from the CEO of a publicly traded company with a billion in sales. Then again, given the news lately, it seems that many CEOs are as morally/ethically bankrupt as regulr homeowners in this economy. We can't really expect someone to step up from the sewer and do the right thing... can we?

    • He always runs away when the going gets tough

    • View More Messages
 
NUAN
15.67-0.09(-0.57%)Sep 19 4:00 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.